Polycrisis in the Pacific – Island Times

How leaders will respond to the PIF summit in Tonga

A small capital city will play host to a huge regional programme.

By Mihai Sora

SYDNEY/NUKU’ALOFA, (DEVPOLICY.ORG) — The Pacific region is facing a “polycrisis,” Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said at a Pacific Security Conference in Suva in June.

The rising threat of climate change, cross-border crime, intense geopolitical competition, severe debt and economic distress are adding to pressures on regional security, such as mental health issues, non-communicable diseases, failing health systems and declining education outcomes.

Against this backdrop, Pacific leaders will gather in Tonga next week for the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. Their agenda will be packed with a range of security, political and economic issues they need to act on, from climate change to regional policing initiatives to New Caledonia.

All eyes are on the European and Gulf states to translate their words into action.

Tonga is expecting more than 1,000 participants for the meeting, including delegations from the 18 PIF member states, 21 dialogue partners, numerous observers, representatives from the private sector, civil society organizations and regional organizations. That’s a lot of dignitaries for Nuku’alofa, Tonga’s capital city of about 23,000 people. And many will be trying to highlight the issues they see as most important.

Climate change and disaster resilience

Climate change remains the top regional security priority. Leaders want to pursue the establishment and funding of the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF), the first “Pacific-owned and -led” regional financial institution aimed at building resilience to climate change and natural disasters. They will be asked to endorse the recommendation of the Forum’s economic ministers to host the facility in Tonga.

That’s the easy part.

The PRF aims to raise US$500 million by 2026. So far, Australia has pledged US$100 million. Saudi Arabia, the United States, China and Turkey have also pledged US$16 million, bringing the total to US$116 million. That’s not enough.

As host, Tonga hopes that the presence of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres at the meeting will fuel the fire among international partners to make or increase their contributions. Guterres is sounding the global climate alarm and has pledged to hold a fundraising event in New York for the facility.

New Caledonia

The unrest in New Caledonia is a concern for everyone in the region. The French territory erupted on May 13 with protests linked to longstanding grievances over independence, which quickly degenerated into civil unrest, costing lives and resulting in extensive property damage in the capital, Noumea.

Paris’ handling of the situation, particularly questions about New Caledonia’s political future and the outcomes of a series of independence referendums, has been widely criticized by regional civil society actors. New Caledonia’s pro-independence movement has appealed to a deep-seated sympathy for self-determination in the Pacific, a region where many countries have only gained independence in recent decades.

Pacific leaders themselves have been more cautious, adhering more to the principle of non-interference than to colonial interests, and have largely limited their statements to calls for an end to violence.

Leaders will focus on those issues where they feel they can make progress.

On August 10, French President Emmanuel Macron approved a three-leader PIF “fact-finding mission” – comprising the prime ministers of the Cook Islands, Solomon Islands and Fiji – to visit New Caledonia and report back to leaders in Tonga. But disagreements over the nature and scope of the mission make it increasingly unlikely that it will go ahead on time.

The issue will be on the agenda in Nuku’alofa, but it is not clear what the PIF can do about it until all relevant parties agree to a mission. And when it comes down to it, PIF Leaders Meetings are generally limited to making progress on what is possible. New Caledonia is a tricky issue for Pacific leaders. As is West Papua, which has been a “standing agenda item” at Leaders Meetings for years, but was not discussed at this month’s Forum Ministers Meeting in Suva.

Police and security

Australia will seek approval for the AUD$400 million (US$269 million) Pacific Policing Initiative from PIF leaders, who are increasingly concerned about rising crime rates in their countries and transnational drug syndicates establishing themselves locally. The initiative will provide Pacific countries with additional capacity gains beyond existing policing programs, as well as additional training and capacity building.

But it is not without its detractors. Solomon Islands senior official Collin Beck criticized the initiative on social media and drew a rebuke from Fiji’s Rabuka. The proposal was adopted by the meeting of foreign ministers and the Forum’s new chair, Tonga, will seek leaders’ approval, with the caveat that further consultations will be needed at the national level.

China’s ambition to provide police training to Pacific nations is adding to geopolitical tensions in the region. China’s move is at odds with a “Pacific-first” response to security challenges. Australia hopes this Pacific-led policing initiative will bring some stability to the regional balance of power and put some flesh on the bones of PIF statements such as the Boe Declaration on regional security.

Agree where we can

International interest in the PIF Leaders Meeting has grown in line with the increasing geopolitical competition in the Pacific. But with the cost of living in the region soaring, ordinary people in the Pacific are more concerned about high inflation, debt, unemployment, struggling social services and other domestic stressors.

Pacific communities will be looking for tangible outcomes from the talks, and the PIF as an institution is under pressure to demonstrate that it is delivering public goods.

So leaders will focus on those issues where they feel they can make progress. Climate change. Economic recovery. Policing. They won’t dwell on potentially divisive or sensitive issues. New Caledonia. West Papua. Deep sea mining. Some will say this shows a lack of ambition. Others will see this approach as pragmatic…. PACNEWS

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