Mexico suspends diplomacy with US, Canadian embassies over criticism of justice reform

Few global relationships are as important as that between the United States and our neighbor to the south—Mexico. Our shared geography and history, the cultural connections and ties of people are deep and profound. They have made and continue to make Texas the unique place it is today.

And yet, diplomatically, there is the occasional rift. And the diplomatic rift that is unfolding right now seems to be a doozy.

Yesterday, Mexico’s outgoing populist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO as he is better known, announced a pause in relations between Mexico and the US and Canadian embassies.

The freeze comes after diplomats from both the U.S. and Canada spoke out against López Obrador’s plan to reform Mexico’s justice system, saying he believes these diplomats should not interfere in Mexico’s internal affairs.

Carlos Gutierrez Mannix, a political science professor at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, said the move is largely symbolic and tied to López Obrador’s plan to run for judges in Mexico.

“One of the most important proposals in the judicial reform is to directly elect judges,” he said. “The Mexican president said that this reform will effectively eliminate the corruption that has plagued the judiciary for decades. But the United States, I think, is a little bit afraid that if they do this, they will open up the judiciary to politics as usual. And we know that in Mexico, ‘politics as usual’ often means a lot of corruption, a lot of money coming from dark places.”

Thousands of judges and court workers in Mexico have already gone on strike in protest of the plan. And last week, the U.S. ambassador publicly called the change a grave risk to the functioning of Mexican democracy — a highly inflammatory statement, Gutierrez Mannix said.

“The current Mexican president is extremely popular, and a lot of that popularity comes in part from his heightened nationalist rhetoric and his heightened message to the public that Mexico should be independent and sovereign,” Gutierrez Mannix said. “And when the United States sent the current ambassador, Ken Salazar, it was a nice gesture because he is of Mexican descent and speaks Spanish. And the relationship between him and the president is very cordial, because Salazar is very good at being diplomatic and not getting into certain topics.

But I think this topic has just gone too far, and I think it was a point where Salazar thought, ‘Okay, I can say this because this is our position.’ It seems like he didn’t anticipate exactly what López Obrador’s reaction would be.”

Those opposed to this judicial reform point to the politicization of the courts in favor of the Morena party, López Obrador’s party, Gutierrez Mannix said.

“Once there are elections and once there are elections for judges, Morena will take a large majority of them,” he said. “The courts will be taken over by allies of the president.”

“But I think a big reason for this position of the United States is that the United States has experience with electing judges at the state level. And we have all sorts of evidence that tells us that direct elections can be dangerous. Direct elections can lead to a judiciary that primarily represents the powerful and the wealthy.”

According to Gutierrez Mannix, fear in Mexico specifically gives malicious actors the power to influence judicial decisions.

“In Mexico, that’s the fear, right? That many of the current elections are being co-opted by dark money, by drug cartels,” he said. “And the moment the judiciary is open to democracy and elections, it will also be corrupted by drug cartels, right? Because what better thing, if you’re a criminal, than to have direct elections and be able to put those judges directly into the judiciary and then be able to count on them in the future?”

According to Gutierrez Mannix, the breaking off of diplomatic relations is more of a slap on the wrist than anything else.

“This is very symbolic. It doesn’t mean much. Staff members are not being asked to leave. They’re not being asked to censor themselves,” he said. “The president is not going to talk to the ambassador directly until he wants to. It’s a way to put pressure on the United States and Canada while not creating an international problem, but also getting some public support.”

Despite the protests, these reforms are very popular, according to Gutierrez Mannix.

“Most people are actually in favor of reform,” he said. “Most people think that the judiciary is very corrupt and that it has been co-opted by the very rich, and that it has become a bureaucracy that is not representative. And the president has been very good at weaving that message. At the same time, if he pauses the relationship but does not cause an international rift, it still gives him some popular values, some popular weight.”

The move also comes as López Obrador is about to complete his six-year term, and his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum will take over as president on October 1.

“One of the things that the president-elect Sheinbaum “What I have done very strategically is to make sure that the thread of the story between López Obrador and her is not broken – that she is also seen as a continuation of this growing nationalism,” Gutierrez Mannix said.

“And so I think she will continue this trend. But I think she will be a little more pragmatic, just because she seems to be a much more pragmatic person. And historically she has never taken very nationalistic positions.”

However, Gutierrez Mannix said this is still a learning opportunity for U.S. officials on how to best maintain diplomatic relations with Mexico.

“It will just set a precedent for the next American president,” he said. “And so the next American president will understand that Sheinbaum is a continuation of AMLO. And they just have to be careful about what they say and what they say publicly for their diplomacy at the end of the day.”