Asylum spending in CHAOS as Labour warned any spike in illegal migrants would send costs spiralling

Labour has been warned that any increase in the number of illegal migrants and asylum seekers entering the UK will further increase the estimated cost of £4.1bn.

Current estimates from the Institute of Fiscal Studies put the cost at $4.1 billion for the year 2024/25, but experts admit that the “precise scale of the burden is difficult to predict each year.”

The only clear point in the report is that any increase in the number of illegal migrants and asylum seekers entering the UK will only increase costs.

Since Labour came to power, more than 7,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats, a sign that the crisis is not abating. This year, 20,500 migrants have already entered the country.

Starmer has outlined his core migration policy: to “destroy gangs” while rejecting the Tories’ Rwanda plan, which was seen as the biggest deterrent to migrants entering the country.

Instead, during a visit to Germany yesterday, Sir Keir said he did not regret scrapping the previous government’s deterrent plan for Rwanda, calling it a ploy.

Labour is currently recruiting an additional 100 detectives for the National Crime Agency.

The new teams will be tasked with targeting organised crime groups involved in people smuggling across the Channel.

Keir Starmer has vowed to destroy the gangs

However, security sources have told GB News that there has been no decline in the number of migrants heading to northern France with the intention of crossing to the UK.

A source said: “From Dunkirk, through Calais to Boulogne, thousands of people are still camping, waiting for their turn to be called forward by the smuggling gangs.

“This is traditionally the busiest time of the year and all indications are that this trend will continue.

“The IFS audit of Home Office and Treasury expenditure and budgets found that the Home Office has often spent far more than it budgeted for on asylum, border, visa and passport operations – and that the 2024/25 budget repeats the mistakes made under the previous government by submitting figures it “knows are inadequate”.

The report said: “The main reason for the higher than planned spending by the Home Office in recent years has been asylum costs. Higher spending partly reflects the costs of a number of special visa, humanitarian protection and resettlement schemes, particularly for Afghanistan and Ukraine.

“But it also reflects a broader upward trend in both the number of asylum applications and the costs per asylum seeker, a trend that was not apparent at the time of the last Spending Review in October 2021.

“In 2023, there were 67,337 asylum applications (for 84,425 people). These numbers are slightly lower than in 2022, but the levels remain much higher than in 2019, when there were 35,737 applications (for 45,537 people).

“Importantly, the number of asylum seekers in ‘contingency, initial and other types of accommodation’ (a category that includes hotels) was 16 times higher at the end of March 2024 than at the end of March 2020 – a key factor contributing to the higher costs.”

The IFS report explains that an increase in the number of asylum seekers would lead to further costs.

A Home Office spokesperson told GB News about the continued rise in migrant numbers: “We all want to see an end to dangerous small boat crossings, which undermine border security and put lives at risk.

“The new government is taking steps to improve our border security. We are creating a new Border Security Command, bringing together our intelligence and law enforcement agencies. We are getting new counter-terrorism powers and hundreds of staff in the UK and abroad. Together we will tackle the criminal smuggling gangs that are making millions in profits.”