AMLO’s exit strategy endangers democracy and trade

Democratic institutions in Mexico have been under attack during Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency. Yet in his final month in office, López Obrador has delivered another blow to the rule of law that could be a knockout blow.

The consequences will be felt by the Mexican people and their trading partners in the United States, including Texas.

After securing an overwhelming majority of seats in Congress, López Obrador’s leftist coalition meets this week to vote on several constitutional reforms that could upend the government’s judicial branch, changes that would undermine the remaining balance of power in Mexico’s government.

Claudia Sheinbaum, an ally and successor to López Obrador, also supports these amendments. She will take office on October 1.

If approved, these reforms would allow judges to be elected by popular vote and gradually replace the entire judiciary, up to the Supreme Court. The plan includes a “disciplinary court” that would combat corruption but would likely become a tool of the presidency when there is a ruling it finds inconvenient.

The amendments would dismantle independent regulatory agencies that oversee economic competition, energy and communications, placing oversight of these areas under the control of the executive branch. What could possibly go wrong in a country where public corruption is rampant?

Without critical checks on presidential power and legal uncertainty, U.S. investors are naturally concerned. The Wilson Center, a Washington think tank, believes these changes will drive away investment and jeopardize the legal framework of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which has brought much stability to Mexico.

Texans who rely on decades of strong economic and supply chain ties to Mexico should be worried, too. López Obrador’s reforms are not only anti-democratic, they’re also anti-free-market. There are already signs that investors are pulling out as a fiscal cliff looms after the Mexican government went on a spending spree in the months leading up to Sheinbaum’s election.

In a rare statement for a U.S. diplomat, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar also expressed “serious concerns” about the justice reform. López Obrador responded by “pausing” diplomatic relations. But Salazar is right; there will be dire consequences for the Mexican people that will be felt beyond Mexico’s borders.

Mexico has never been a model for the rule of law. Yet Mexican judges were the only ones to end López Obrador’s power grabs during his time in office.

We suspect that drug cartels will welcome the reforms that are coming. Expect mafias to nominate their own candidates for judgeships and threaten the opposition.

Mexico’s new Congress meets Monday. The left-wing coalition needs just three more votes to secure an absolute majority for constitutional reform, and observers warn that could be easy.

If López Obrador or his cronies control the judiciary, Mexican democracy will be in name only. It would mean a return to the one-party system that Mexicans have fought for decades.

Part of our series The Unraveling of Latin AmericaThis editorial discusses judicial reforms in Mexico that are said to undermine democracy.

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