How have tensions between the United States and Mexico escalated?

On September 1, 2024, thousands of supporters of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gathered in Mexico City to support his plan for judicial reform. Obrador used the rally to continue his aggressive rhetoric against Washington, which has spoken out against the plan. Obrador stated: “Let our friends and neighbors in the United States understand this.”

The comments followed the Mexican president’s announcement on August 27, 2024, to freeze ties with the U.S. and Canadian embassies, but not with the two countries themselves, after their ambassadors criticized proposed judicial reforms that would see judges elected by popular vote. At the same time, he assured that U.S.-Mexico relations would remain unaffected, likely an attempt to allay concerns about potential impacts on trade relations between Mexico and its northern neighbor.

Despite the fact that the reforms, if passed, would remove more than 5,000 judges from their positions, from the Supreme Court to local courts, Obrador has argued that the reforms are necessary to prevent corruption and rulings that give drug traffickers free rein. Others, however — citing a series of attacks on judges who have ruled against some of his plans — see the measures as a pretext to undermine the independence of the judiciary and strengthen the influence of the national political movement led by the Mexican president.

Reasons for tension

The tensions in US-Mexico relations are caused by several key factors:

US criticism of judicial reforms in Mexico: A major reason for the current tension between the US and Mexico is President Obrador’s plan to reform Mexico’s judicial system. Obrador wants to amend the constitution so that judges are elected by popular vote instead of by the Mexican government. The US sees this move as a threat to Mexican democracy, as it could politicize the judiciary and weaken its independence, which is a fundamental pillar of democracy and crucial to upholding the rule of law. The US Embassy in Mexico has expressed several concerns about the problems that could arise if judges were elected by popular vote. A memo from the US Embassy in Mexico stressed that while Washington supports the concept of judicial reform in Mexico, it has serious concerns that electing judges by popular vote would neither address judicial corruption nor strengthen the judicial authority of the Mexican government.

Increasing illegal immigration from Mexico to the US: The issue of illegal immigration across the southern border, which many Americans view as a national security concern, remains a constant source of tension between the U.S. and Mexico. Economic inequality, violence and lack of opportunity have driven millions of Mexicans to migrate to the U.S. in search of a better life. According to the Pew Research Center, nearly 11 million Mexican-born people, both legally and illegally, were living in the U.S. in 2020. There have also been complaints from Mexico about the treatment and detention conditions of migrants, including incidents in which U.S. Border Patrol agents have thrown away migrants’ personal belongings. U.S. political rhetoric has often portrayed Mexican migrants negatively, contributing to xenophobia and stereotypes against Mexicans. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration’s approach, including a proposal to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and demanding that Mexico pay for it, escalated tensions, leading to diplomatic spats and protests by the Mexican government.

Increasing mutual criticism: Tensions between the two countries have escalated as US and Mexican officials exchange statements. US Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar openly criticized President Obrador’s efforts to reform the judiciary, calling them a significant threat to Mexico’s democracy and warning that they could undermine US-Mexico trade relations by undermining confidence in the Mexican judicial system and encouraging drug cartels to exploit politicized and inexperienced judges. President Obrador reacted angrily to these criticisms, viewing them as interference in Mexico’s internal affairs. He announced a severance of ties with the US embassy in Mexico.

Drug trafficking and organised crime: Drug trafficking and organized crime are additional sources of tension between Mexico and the U.S. The U.S. demand for illegal drugs has fueled a multibillion-dollar industry in Mexico controlled by drug cartels. These cartels are responsible for violence, corruption and instability in Mexico, posing a threat to U.S. national security. The U.S. government has supported Mexico’s efforts to combat drug trafficking through initiatives such as the Mérida Initiative, providing funding, training and equipment to Mexican security forces. However, the military’s approach has often been criticized for escalating violence and human rights abuses. The flow of firearms from the U.S. to Mexico, which contributes to gang violence, is another contentious issue, with Mexican authorities accusing the U.S. of not doing enough to curb the illegal arms trade.

Differences in trade and economic policies: Despite the close and enduring economic relationship between the U.S. and Mexico, there are several trade and economic disputes between the two countries. These disputes arise from a wide range of issues, including tariffs, trade policies, regulations, and economic conditions. The U.S. has raised concerns about Mexico’s labor practices and environmental regulations, leading to threats of tariffs. On the other hand, Mexico has raised concerns about U.S. protectionist policies that threaten its exports. The U.S. has demanded stricter rules of origin and stronger labor protections, which Mexico sees as an attempt to limit its competitive advantage.

Far-reaching implications

The tensions between Mexico and the US have a number of far-reaching consequences, including:

Economic consequences of trade disputes: Economic and trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico have led to increasing uncertainty in the economic relationship between the two countries, affecting trade and investment flows. Trade disputes over tariffs and trade practices can disrupt supply chains and impact businesses that rely on cross-border trade. Economic and trade tensions have led to reciprocal tariffs, raising the cost of certain goods and negatively impacting consumers and businesses in both the U.S. and Mexico. This has led to economic pressures and higher operating costs.

Damage to the US’s global image: The focus of the administrations of former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden on border security and a strict stance against illegal immigration has affected the global image of the United States, particularly through human rights abuses such as family separations and the detention of migrants in harsh conditions. These policies have been criticized by human rights groups. The US rhetoric on immigration has also increased anti-immigrant sentiment and xenophobia in the country, leading to social polarization and incidents of hate crimes against Mexican and other Latino communities in the US.

Impact on Mexico’s national security: The military approach to combating drug trafficking has increased violence in Mexico, with thousands of lives lost each year to organized crime-related violence. The flow of weapons from the U.S. to Mexico exacerbates this violence, creating a vicious circle of insecurity. These security concerns have strained diplomatic relations and require continued cooperation between the U.S. and Mexican governments.

Worsening US-Mexico diplomatic crises: Tensions over issues such as immigration, trade, security, and proposed legal reforms have led to diplomatic tensions that could affect bilateral cooperation on several fronts. Diplomatic conflicts, such as those over financing for the U.S. border wall and tariffs, could hamper constructive dialogue and cooperation on critical issues such as economic development, climate change, and regional stability.

A delicate balance

In conclusion, the current tensions between Mexico, the U.S. and Canada, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s announcement to freeze relations with the U.S. and Canadian embassies (after their ambassadors criticized proposed judicial reforms that would see judges elected by popular vote), reflect the complexity of contemporary international relations, where national sovereignty and domestic sensitivities play a major role. Overcoming these challenges requires a delicate balance between addressing internal challenges and maintaining positive relations with international partners.