New Zealand intelligence report, leaked FBI data point to increasing use of mafia by hostile states

A New Zealand intelligence report and a leaked FBI interview about Iranian intelligence plans to assassinate Donald Trump — and possibly other key leaders, including Joe Biden — underscore the growing threat of hostile states deploying transnational mafias to attack diasporas and politicians in the West.

The New Zealand report, published this week, also contains warnings reminiscent of an explosive new insider threat indictment, in which a top New York state official was accused of influencing several governors in favor of China.

Leaked FBI records show that federal investigators questioned Asif Merchant, a Pakistani man accused of being involved in an Iranian-backed plot to assassinate Trump or possibly two of his campaign rivals: President Joe Biden and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, days after former President Donald Trump was struck by a bullet at a campaign rally.

According to a offer agreement released by Senator Chuck Grassley (and since removed from the senator’s website), Merchant discussed operational details with his Iranian contact, Mehardad Yousef.

Their conversations included hiring mafia men and debates over assassination tactics, such as whether to use firearms for close-range or long-range attacks. But they also met in Iran and discussed killing senior U.S. leaders besides Trump, the document says, sometime around January 2024.

“Merchant asked Yousef what he should tell the mob if they asked who the target of the assassination would be,” the FBI document said. “Yousef said it could be Donald Trump, then paused and said it could be Joe Biden, Nikki Haley, or other politicians, military figures, or bureaucrats.”

The FBI offer document also shows that Merchant traveled to New York City and visited a Mexican club to “locate and evaluate individuals who could conduct reconnaissance or facilitate communications on behalf of” the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

A “proffer agreement” is a formal meeting between a suspect or witness and federal investigators in which the person provides information about his or her knowledge of criminal activity, often in exchange for possible leniency.

The redacted FBI file shows that Merchant agreed to cooperate with the IRGC because he was interested in intelligence work and was convinced that Iranian agents would wire $1 million to the United States to finance the assassination plot. Merchant would receive $50,000 of that.

Federal authorities are investigating the July 13 near-assassination of Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, by Thomas Matthew Crooks. Investigators say Crooks has no ties to Iran.

In January, The Office reported on another explosive case in which the IRGC and a Hells Angel In that case, according to U.S. government sanctions, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Iranian drug traffickers hired gangsters from British Columbia in 2021 to assassinate Iranian dissidents in the United States for a fee of $350,000.

The leaked FBI documents and the earlier Vancouver Hells Angels case align with global trends identified by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS) in its 2024 Threat Environment report.

The NZSIS report warns of the increasing overlap between foreign interference and violent extremism, with hostile states using criminal organisations to achieve their goals.

According to the NZSIS, some states have co-opted criminal gangs and violent extremist groups.

“The conflict in Gaza is being used by terrorist organisations to fuel online radicalisation and recruitment,” the NZSIS report said. “Another worrying global trend is the intersection between foreign interference and violent extremism, with some states using criminal gangs or groups commonly associated with violent extremism to carry out civil society interference against expatriate communities.”

The cases in North America and the intelligence community warnings in New Zealand highlight a disturbing pattern in which states like Iran are not only willing to use surrogate actors for political assassinations, but also engage in global influence campaigns that violate the rights of their diasporas.

In the case of Merchant, the Iranian regime’s use of agents and proxies reveals the sophisticated level of planning and intelligence gathering aimed at destabilizing political figures and institutions abroad. The same dynamic of using covert actors is being signaled by New Zealand’s intelligence community as foreign states seek to intimidate diaspora communities, conduct espionage, and carry out violent extremist activities to exert influence beyond their borders.

The NZSIS report also highlights instances of “insider threat” that resemble factors in the FBI investigation into infiltration by Beijing’s United Front Work Department and a senior adviser to two New York governors, which came to light in a new indictment this week.

“There have been a number of occasions where NZSIS has worked with government agencies to prevent, mitigate and respond to actual or potential insider threats,” the New Zealand Threat Assessment said. “NZSIS has observed attempts to use complex and deceptive front organisations to reach out to groups in New Zealand and to substitute authentic and diverse community views for those endorsed by the PRC. These front organisations often appear community-based and claim to represent an issue or group of people, but their true affiliation, direction and sources of funding are concealed.

In the FBI’s case, Linda Sun, a Chinese-American political aide accused of acting as an agent for Beijing, rose quickly in New York State politics, eventually becoming deputy chief of staff to Gov. Kathy Hochul. She previously worked as director of public relations for a Taiwanese-American congresswoman and served as deputy diversity director under former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

According to a newly unsealed indictment, Sun allegedly used her influence to suppress criticism of China’s treatment of Uighurs and obstruct interactions between Taiwanese officials and New York state leaders. In return, Beijing allegedly rewarded her with millions in bribes and business deals.

Sun and her husband Chris Hu were arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act, visa fraud, human smuggling and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

In a hard-hitting New York Post Quoted in Op/Ed by a congress committee Mike Pompeo, former US Secretary of State and CIA director, claimed that both New York governors ignored his warnings.

“For years, I have warned that the Chinese Communist Party is infiltrating American society and government at every level,” Pompeo wrote this week. “While these details (of Sun’s case) may come as a shock to some, this is exactly how the CCP operates. Beijing is seeking to influence every level of our society, from the federal government to universities to state senates and even PTA meetings. We cannot treat this threat as something far away, on the other side of a vast ocean. The CCP is inside the gates.”

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