Tom Arms’ World Review

Gaza

In a month it will be one year since the Gaza war began. There is no end in sight.

The two sides – Israel and Hamas – have two diametrically opposed positions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he will accept nothing less than the total destruction of Hamas. He might reluctantly accept a temporary ceasefire if the Israeli Defense Forces or the Mossad succeed in killing Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. That would allow him to get at least some of the hostages back. But once those hostages are returned, expect the attacks to resume.

Hamas leader Sinwar insists on nothing less than a permanent ceasefire. This means that at least a Hamas remnant remains intact for the Palestinians to build on. Netanyahu would consider such an outcome a failure.

Meanwhile, US, Qatari and Egyptian negotiators are attempting to bridge these seemingly irreconcilable positions with a diplomatic agreement couched in terms of “constructive ambiguity,” allowing both sides to claim concessions, if not outright victory.

The costs of failure are high. At stake are not only the plight of millions of Gazans and the future security of the state of Israel. The threat of a broader regional war hangs over the talks. A small misstep by Israel, Iran, Hezbollah or the Houthis could easily cause a major conflagration.

Ironically, escalation could work to the advantage of both Netanyahu and Sinwar. From the Hamas leader’s perspective, a major conflict in the Middle East would draw Israeli forces away from Gaza to attack Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon. There is also the possibility that escalation could pull the Arabs off the fence and onto the Palestinian side.

Viewing the benefits of escalation through Israeli eyes, Netanyahu has for some time been pressuring the US to join him in a direct attack on Iran, which he sees as the source of all of Israel’s problems. The Israeli prime minister was explicit in stating that goal in his recent speech to a joint session of Congress.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is still no closer to achieving his goal of completely destroying Hamas, and Yahya Sinwar is still no closer to admitting total defeat.

Immigration

There’s a new forest of placards at Trump rallies: “Mass Deportation Now!” The same cry can be heard in Spain at Vox rallies. In France when the National Rally meets. It is shouted by some members of the British Reform Party. In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) managed to take control of the eastern German state of Thuringia this week.

And it’s not just the far right that’s pushing the anti-immigration line. Joe Biden’s tough new executive orders have dramatically reduced the number of illegal immigrants crossing America’s southern border. Stefan Lofven, leader of the center-left, formerly pro-immigrant Swedish Social Democrats, recently reversed the party’s policy, declaring: “The Swedish people can feel safe in the knowledge that Social Democrats stand for a strict immigration policy.”

The Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Serbia, Czech Republic… Almost the entire Western world has become anti-immigrant. Being against immigration gets you votes. Supporting deportation is a bit iffy, but the debate is moving in that direction. The problem is that mass deportation is completely impractical.

Let’s start with the world’s richest country, where Donald Trump has promised “the largest deportation of illegal immigrants in American history.” Exactly how big is still up for debate. The Migration Policy Institute estimates there are 11.3 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance has said, “Let’s start with a million and go from there.” Trump is talking about kicking out up to 20 million.

Imagine trying to round up 20 million people; force them onto buses; put them in detention centers; shove them onto airplanes, and then find countries that will take them back. Imagine the economic impact of taking 20 million workers out of the economy, most of whom are taxpayers. The Migration Policy Institute estimates that it would cost taxpayers $14,000 to deport each illegal immigrant from the U.S. That means one million would cost over $14 billion, and Trump’s estimate would cost the government a whopping $280 billion and trillions to the economy in lost work hours.

Financial spending in Europe is likely to be much, much higher, as Europeans are generally less harsh and more legalistic than their American counterparts.

Then there is the added problem that the migration problem is not going away. There are some 35 million immigrants in Europe and America, and countless millions more are crowding in behind them. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees recently reported that the number of displaced people in the world has reached a staggering 108 million. They are struggling to survive, and for them the dangers of a small boat crossing are nothing compared to what they are fleeing.

In Sudan alone, 10 million people have been displaced in the past year by a civil war between rival warlords. An estimated 60 percent of those gathering in the refugee camps of Calais are Sudanese. In America, Venezuelans are fleeing the regime of Nicolas Maduro, the Mexican and Colombian drug cartels, the gang wars of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, and the human disaster that is Haiti. They will keep coming until they have no reason to.

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin told state broadcaster Russia Today (RT) this week that he supports Kamala Harris for president of the United States. Unfortunately, President Putin’s message is not reaching Russian propagandists working on the ground in America.

This week, the Justice, State and Treasury Departments announced sanctions against 10 individuals and two entities, and criminal charges against two RT employees, for allegedly funding a U.S. company to hire right-wing social media influencers to spread Russian propaganda ahead of the 2024 election.

The Russians allegedly funded a Tennessee company called Tenet Media. The indictment alleges that its registered owners – Liam Donovan and Lauren Tam – received at least $10 million from RT to spread Russian propaganda.

Contrary to Putin’s claims of support for Ms. Harris, virtually all of the propaganda supported Donald Trump. According to seized Russian documents, Tenet Media was instructed to “make maximum efforts to ensure that the Republican position, primarily the position of Trump supporters, prevails over American public opinion. This includes provisions on peace in Ukraine in exchange for territories, the need to focus on the problems of the American economy, the return of troops from all over the world, etc.”

The campaign targeted “Republican voters,” Trump supporters, “adherents of traditional family values,” and “white Americans, representing the lower middle class and the middle class.” The focus was specifically on “residents of swing states,” whose voting records influence the outcome of the election more than other states.

Separately, the Justice Department seized 32 internet domains that “the Russian government and Russian-sponsored actors” used to influence the 2024 election. In a malicious influence campaign dubbed “Doppelganger,” these domains produced fake articles that appeared to come from major U.S. news sites, to which influencers and fake social media profiles on Facebook, X, Truth Social, and YouTube then directed traffic.

The Russians instructed their American employees to emphasize the following “campaign themes”: “Rising universal poverty. Record inflation. Halting economic growth. Unaffordable prices for food and essential goods”; “Risk of job loss for white Americans”; “Privileges for people of color, perverts, and the disabled”; “Threat of crime from people of color and immigrants”; “Overspending on foreign policy and in the interests of white American citizens.”

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain.” To subscribe to his email alerts on world affairs, click here.