Experts react: Maduro has forced Venezuela’s opposition leader into exile. What should the world do now?

He’s in no mood to bargain. After falsely declaring victory in July’s presidential election, Venezuela’s autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, has continued to tighten his grip on the country rather than engage in talks with the democratic opposition. Over the weekend, Edmundo González, who independent observers say won the election by a large margin, fled to Spain after a court issued a warrant for his arrest. “I trust that soon we will continue the struggle to achieve freedom and the recovery of democracy in Venezuela,” González said from Madrid. But how? And how can the United States and regional countries help? Our experts are on the case.

Click to jump to an expert analysis:

Jason Marczak: Democracies need to make life miserable for Maduro

Kevin Whitaker: Democracies should use Venezuela’s military and private sector to squeeze Maduro

Samantha Sultoon: It’s time to tighten sanctions and limit Maduro’s access to the UN

Diego Area: González now has an opportunity to lead renewed diplomatic efforts from abroad

Iria Puyosa: With Venezuela’s opposition under siege, now is the moment for coordinated international support

Democracies need to make life miserable for Maduro

González ultimately saw no other alternative. He was left with two choices: face arrest—and likely torture—by the Maduro regime or continue the fight for Venezuelan democracy from abroad.

At age seventy-five, the choice was Spain—a longtime destination for those fleeing Maduro’s autocracy. But it’s not a choice he should have had to make. Instead, it’s a reflection of the inability of the international community to force Maduro’s hand after published vote tallies showed that González bested Maduro by more than 30 percentage points in the July 28 presidential election. While Brazil and Colombia have sought to find some type of negotiated solution, the actions of Maduro—including detaining over 2,400 people—show that he is only looking to double down on this newest campaign of repression.

González’s departure leaves opposition leader María Corina Machado to fight for a restoration of democracy in Venezuela. She will need regional and global democracies to back her up with more than just statements. Words don’t resonate with Maduro unless backed up by actions to make life miserable for him and those closest to him. Here, the recent seizing of Maduro’s plane in the Dominican Republic should be a warning of what more could be coming his way, especially with greater international coordination.

Months before his election, González said, “We’re confident that on the day the opposition vote will be so massive our victory will be indisputable.” He was right. The victory of the opposition is clear. Now, what must be made clear to Maduro are the consequences of the most blatant vote grab in recent regional history.

—Jason Marczak is the vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

Democracies should use Venezuela’s military and private sector to squeeze Maduro

González’s tragic if understandable decision to leave Venezuela represents the failure of a well-conceived effort to achieve an institutional exit from dictatorship. A government-in-exile will be doomed to irrelevance. GonzIález’s departure will increase demands from supporters in the United States from both parties, along with the astonishingly stalwart Machado, to impose new sanctions. But “maximum pressure” failed before and will again, as Maduro enjoys the support of an authoritarian bloc led by China. Moreover, sanctions on the oil sector could rebound with catastrophic economic and political consequences if they feed an otherwise likely fresh wave of emigration. Internationally, the Brazil-Mexico-Colombia diplomatic gambit appears defunct. The Venezuelan street has been largely silent.

The bitter reality is that Venezuela’s best chance in decades for an institutional democratic exit from dictatorship failed. Maduro and his thugs plainly see that neither sanctions, nor negotiations, nor popular pressure has dislodged them, despite González’s undeniable electoral victory.

For supporters of democratic change, recognition of the inadequacy of our tools is not the end of the discussion. The center of gravity of the regime remains the armed forces, where we lack entree. That path needs to be (re?) examined, perhaps in the persons of the hard men and women who led US efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. These former officials’ will and professionalism can have special purchase with those leading Venezuela’s armed forces. They could explain to the Venezuelan generals that their responsibilities should be to support and defend Venezuela’s institutions, not the interests of the repressive Maduro regime. Meeting their unique responsibilities will bring them credit; continuing to support the dictatorship will damage Venezuela’s national interests and will have direct implications for them as individual leaders. In addition, there could be a shared interest in confronting the criminal groups sheltering in Venezuela that feed the flow of migrants and drugs to the United States.

Another unexploited angle is with the Venezuelan private sector, which has profited from collusion with the Bolivarian regime yet enjoys access to US and other Western markets. Finally, while the current leaders of Latin America’s genuine democracies in Mexico City, Brasília, and Bogotá have demonstrated their incapacity or unwillingness to press forward, civil society in all three nations can be mobilized in support of democratic change in Venezuela.

Critically, we all must acknowledge the unsustainability of the situation. A continuation of Maduro’s dictatorship will bring pain to Venezuela and a renewed flood of migrants, to the detriment of all involved.

—Kevin Whitaker is a nonresident senior fellow at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and a former US ambassador to Colombia.

It’s time to tighten sanctions and limit Maduro’s access to the UN

The abrupt departure of Venezuelan opposition leader González, less than two months after the disputed Venezuelan elections, most likely reflects the level of aggressive threats the Maduro regime made against him. In addition to last week’s arrest warrant accusing him of falsifying public documents, instigation to disobey the law, conspiracy, and other charges that clearly seek to undermine the integrity of the opposition’s vote tally, regime officials have made every effort—public and private—to undermine and intimidate González and the opposition into submission. This aggressive effort to deny the Venezuelan people democratic representation by those for whom the people clearly voted in the July elections is quintessential Maduro. Time and time again, when the opportunity for a fresh start is offered, Maduro and his cronies throw it away and suffocate the will of the Venezuelan people. Declaring Christmas in October will not allow Maduro to gloss over his continued destruction of the Venezuelan economy.

While the Biden-Harris administration is carefully balancing multiple global conflicts and the United States’ role within each of them, its efforts to support the people of Venezuela will need to be redoubled, and quickly. Without González in the country and without credible, transparent election results shared publicly, the Venezuelan people will be left to wonder why they turned out to vote in the first place. They will also certainly question where the United States, European Union, and others that voice support for Venezuelan democracy do not back up their words with clear public actions.

Tightening sanctions on Maduro and his cronies responsible for continuing to undermine democratic processes and institutions in Venezuela, along with the regime’s ongoing corruption and human rights abuses, is one available step. Another public messaging step could be limiting access during the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in New York. If Maduro and his cronies seek to participate in such global gatherings, then there should be a minimum bar for entry that disallows those who squander democracy until they’ve publicly changed their ways. Further public (and private) efforts should be coordinated across the Group of Seven (G7) or other international alliances to highlight for Maduro the isolation he is inviting if he is sworn in again in January. While unlikely, there is still a narrow window for change that remains.

—Samantha Sultoon is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, a former director for Threat Finance and Sanctions at the National Security Council at the White House, and a former sanctions policy expert for the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

González now has an opportunity to lead renewed diplomatic efforts from abroad

A new chapter begins in the courageous struggle to liberate Venezuela from a dictatorship that has lost its support base both domestically and internationally, following the flight of González to Spain. His life was clearly at risk after receiving multiple threats and an arrest warrant amid a wave of postelection repression, which the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights labeled as “state terrorism.” While this decision may seem like a retreat, it is undoubtedly a strategic move in the broader fight for Venezuela’s freedom.

Rather than disheartening those who support Venezuela’s democratic restoration, this should be viewed as a safeguard—González, with his legitimacy intact, is now beyond the reach of a regime that imprisons, tortures, and executes opponents while stealing elections and suppressing the people’s will. It also provides González with a historic opportunity to engage with more than seven million Venezuelans who have fled the country, many of whom were denied their political rights. Only 69,211 Venezuelans were allowed to vote in this year’s election.

As an experienced diplomat, González’s escape positions him to lead renewed diplomatic efforts with international allies. The Maduro regime will likely continue to channel resources into complex lobbying structures, influencing narratives and spreading disinformation in coordination with Russia, China, and Iran. But now the democratic opposition will have a legitimately elected leader mobilizing Venezuelan communities worldwide to counteract the regime’s economic and repressive power.

—Diego Area is a deputy director of strategic development at the Adrienne Arsht Latin American Center.

With Venezuela’s opposition under siege, now is the moment for coordinated international support

The Venezuelan regime’s forced exile of González has unquestionably crossed the threshold that democratic governments in the Americas and Europe have repeatedly warned against. Urgent action is now imperative, and democratic governments must go beyond mere expressions of concern and take immediate steps to support a peaceful transition of power that the people of Venezuela have rightfully earned through democratic processes.

While it is Venezuelans’ responsibility to continue their impressive movement towards democracy, the recent crackdown against political parties and civil society has significantly hindered progress. The movement’s leaders, including Machado, are now under siege. External support is crucial for reestablishing democracy, the rule of law, and respect for human rights in Venezuela. What can external allies do to compel Maduro to step down and ensure that a new president takes the oath on January 10, 2025?

The response must focus on severing the regime’s support from its current pillars. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation and Drug Enforcement Administration, along with agencies in partner countries, should disrupt transnational criminal networks that exploit Venezuela’s natural resources, engage in financial corruption, and have ties to organized crime. The United Nations could be a good venue for external allies to address the international support that the Maduro regime continues to receive from authoritarian states and some left-leaning democratic countries that place ideological affinity over fundamental rights. Moreover, the United States and regional countries should look for opportunities to thwart Venezuela’s security forces and ruling party paramilitaries, as they instill fear among the population—and even among the armed forces’ middle ranks—through kidnapping, incarceration, and torture.

A solid and coordinated international effort to weaken the regime pillars will enable the pro-democracy movement to force the ruling party to accept the transition, ultimately bringing about positive changes in Venezuela and the entire Western Hemisphere.

—Iria Puyosa is a senior research fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab.

Memo to the president: Seizing the opportunity for a democratic solution in Venezuela

Memo to…
By
Geoff Ramsey, Jason Marczak, Brian Fonseca, and Eduardo Gamarra

Venezuelans head to the polls for a presidential election July 28. Whether incumbent Nicolás Maduro or opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia is declared the victor, the United States and its partners have a major opportunity to bring all parties together to negotiate a power-sharing agreement and restore the economically devastated country’s democratic institutions.

Image: FILE PHOTO: Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez looks on on the day he casts his vote in the country’s presidential election, in Caracas, Venezuela July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo