Bills vs Dolphins Early Leaning and Picks – Thursday Night Football Week 2

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins both needed to come from behind to win in Week 1, which promises to be another exciting game for Thursday Night Football.

The NFL Week 2 odds show the Dolphins as slight home favorites, with Monday morning markets ranging from -1 to -2. This is a huge matchup for these AFC East rivals, and my Bills vs. Dolphins predictions are backing the slight underdogs to get the inside scoop on a thrilling division race.

I evaluate the opening odds, the early moves, and the outstanding odds as I give my early preference for NFL picks for September 12.

Bills vs Dolphins predictions

Early spread thin
Buffalo +2 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Buffalo Bills got the fright of their lives from the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, coming back from a 17-3 deficit to win 34-28 in Orchard Park.

The Cardinals’ 28 points don’t look great against this Buffalo defense, but half of those points came under strange circumstances, and this six-point game easily could have been a 34-17 Bills Mafia victory. That would have made this Week 2 spread look very different.

First, Arizona scored a kickoff return touchdown with the new “dynamic” rules and swirling winds aiding that special teams offense. Another note concerns the Cardinals’ opening score, in which the Bills were called for a phantom unnecessary roughness penalty on third-and-13 that turned a likely Arizona field goal from the 25-yard line into a touchdown.

The Miami Dolphins squeaked out a 20-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 1. Like the Bills’ box score, that final tally is misleading. The Dolphins should have trailed 24-7 in the third quarter, but Jaguars RB Travis Etienne fumbled on the goal line for a touchback.

The Fins hit an 80-yard home run touchdown to Tyreek Hill on the very first play of the ensuing possession — a shot that gave Hard Rock Stadium an adrenaline rush after an otherwise subdued effort from the home team.

As noted above, Buffalo should have won by more than six points on Sunday, and the Dolphins took advantage of a 14-point swing in a two-play sequence. Even with Josh Allen’s hand injury (non-throwing), the Bills are a step up from Jacksonville — particularly on offense.

Buffalo’s revamped receiving corps had nine different players catch a pass, and five of those players had 23 or more yards (and one other had 19 yards). The Bills ranked No. 2 in EPA per dropback in Week 1.

The odds for this summer’s Thursday Night Football preview had Miami at -1, and Allen’s short-week status has bookmakers putting Fins at -2, despite Allen telling reporters he’ll be fine. I believe Allen’s hand will be good enough, and I like the slight underdog in this Thursday night divisional dance.

Early over/under lean
Under 50.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis

There are injury concerns for both the Bills and Dolphins defenses as the short week begins.

Miami’s stop unit is already riddled with injuries, particularly at linebacker, with Bradley Chubb set to start the season on the sidelines. Jaelan Phillips is still recovering from an Achilles injury and played 64% of the snaps in Week 1, and fellow LB David Long Jr. played with a hand injury on Sunday and is questionable for Thursday’s quick turnaround.

Buffalo didn’t come out of Week 1 unscathed either. On top of Allen’s hand, the Bills lost potential starting nickelback Taron Johnson to a forearm injury. The Bills’ defense looks nothing like it did in 2023, with departures and injuries shaking up the depth chart.

That said, Buffalo did a good job of keeping the Cardinals offense in front of them, holding Arizona to the seventh-lowest passing percentage in Week 1, giving up just 4.5 yards per play. In the two meetings with Miami last season, the Bills held the Fins to outputs of 14 and 20 points.

As for the Buffalo offense, it no longer features a “deep strike” playbook, instead relying on bigger, stockier receivers to power their way to the football and add yards after the catch. The Bills, under OC Joe Brady, also ran the ball at the fourth-highest rate in Week 1 (56.9%) compared to their 46.5% run rate last season.

The Dolphins are also looking to find a better balance in their play calling, using the run to not only set up the pass but also to give this offense a more methodical approach. Mike McDaniel trailed for much of that Week 1 opener, only seeing off 38 percent of the snaps. We’ll see more touches from Miami’s talented backfield of Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr.

The Thursday Night Football forecast could also affect output, putting early season conditioning to the test with little rest. Temperatures are currently forecast in the low 80s, but the humidex is at 80%, making it feel like 104 degrees. That also brings potential thunderstorms to Hard Rock Stadium, with showers threatening the first half.

Bills vs Dolphins live odds

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