WI, MI, PA Poll: US Foreign Policy Doesn’t Put Americans First

An intriguing Cato Institute poll of likely voters in the three states expected to decide November’s presidential election shows that Americans are not only paying attention, but also have strong opinions about how much the U.S. should get involved in global conflicts.

“Foreign policy issues are typically not the deciding factor in elections,” Cato’s Jon Hoffman tells me. “Our own polling shows that the relevance of foreign policy relative to other issues remains relatively low. Still, there’s no denying that there’s a large disconnect between the American public and policymakers in Washington on a number of key issues. Whether that will move the needle in any of these three key swing states remains to be seen, but these are growing divides that deserve to be recognized.”

Some highlights in this regard:

— Percentage of those who think the U.S. is too involved in world affairs and conflicts: Wisconsin 53%, Pennsylvania 50%, Michigan 52% (Republicans were much more likely than Democrats to say the U.S. is too involved.)

— Percentage who think US foreign policy does not put US interests first: Wisconsin 62%, Pennsylvania 61%, Michigan 60%

— The percentage who would be less likely to vote for a presidential candidate if they disagreed with their positions on foreign policy, if they agreed with them on other issues: Wisconsin 52%, Pennsylvania 50%, Michigan 52%

— On Gaza, an absolute majority supports an immediate ceasefire: Wisconsin 80%, Pennsylvania 75%, Michigan 74%.

— On Ukraine, a majority of swing state voters still believe the war in Ukraine is important to U.S. national security: Wisconsin 65%, Pennsylvania 70%, Michigan 71%. But they were less optimistic about whether they approved of the U.S. handling of the war: Wisconsin 39%, Pennsylvania 41%, Michigan 40%. When told that the U.S. had already provided $170 billion in weapons and aid, they were less reluctant to stop it: Wisconsin 50%, Pennsylvania 54%, Michigan 57%.

— In Mexico, majorities approved sending armies into the country to fight drug cartels, as proposed by several GOP candidates/legislators, including Donald Trump: Wisconsin 55%, Pennsylvania 55%, Michigan 51%. But that number drops when asked whether they would feel the same way if the Mexican government opposed it: Wisconsin 33%, Pennsylvania 36%, Michigan 37%

When likely voters were asked who they support in the November election, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Wisconsin, 51%-46%. Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania, 47%-47%, and Trump leads Harris 48% to 47% in Michigan.

Interestingly, likely voters in all three states say Trump is more likely to keep the U.S. out of war, Wisconsin 52%, Pennsylvania 51%, Michigan 52%. They said he is more likely to put U.S. interests first in foreign policy, Wisconsin 51%, Pennsylvania 54%, Michigan 56%

But they said the former president is more likely than Harris to get the US into “World War III”: Wisconsin 51%, Pennsylvania 51%, Michigan 53%

As for World War III, voters in these swing states were most likely to think we were headed for a world war: Wisconsin 59%, Pennsylvania 51%, Michigan 54%

See here for Cato’s full poll.