Russia to ‘step up’ sabotage against UK if missile ban lifted

The UK will be “singled out” as Russia seeks to scale up sabotage and online disinformation in response to the lifting of restrictions on the use of Britain’s Storm Shadow weapons to hit Russian targets, military experts have said. i.

On Friday, US President Joe Biden and Keir Starmer will meet to discuss Ukraine’s use of UK-made Storm Shadow missiles and US-made ATACMs, which can strike 305 kilometres beyond the Russian border.

The talks are being closely watched because of the risk of escalation, after Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday: “This means that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia.”

While previous “red lines” in the conflict have not provoked a major response from the Russian leader, experts believe Russia has a range of options at its disposal to defend itself.

Keir Giles, a Russian military expert at Chatham House, told i “Russia will look for ways to target the UK in particular.”

Justin Crump, a former British Army officer and director of consultancy Sibylline, said that “the UK has often been the first to deploy new capabilities, first with tanks and other donations that have opened the door for the rest of Europe to follow suit”, meaning Britain will be “singled out” for a response.

Experts believe that Russia’s increasingly sophisticated operations will lead to a growing risk of coordinated arson attacks, online disinformation, targeted assassinations and the recruitment of local gangs to carry out acts of sabotage. Here are some ways they could be carried out.

Sabotage throughout Europe

Russian sabotage operations are closely watched by Britain’s security services. A fire at a Ukrainian business in Leyton, east London, led to the arrest of a British man who was charged in August after allegedly being recruited to act for the mercenary Wagner Group.

The suspect is due to appear in court under Britain’s new National Security Act, while four other men have also been charged in connection with the arson.

Mr Giles told i: “Russia does not use its own military intelligence officers to commit murder and arson, they use surrogates recruited from organized crime groups, which makes it harder to detect.”

The case is not an isolated incident, with a Russian sabotage campaign extending across Europe. Estonian security services have tracked Russian attempts to recruit local citizens to attack their own government, while in Lithuania Moscow has used organized criminal networks to arrange physical attacks on Russian opposition figures.

Swedish security police are currently investigating railway and drone derailments over Stockholm’s Arlanda Airport, which also involve Russia. In January 2022, a Russian fishing boat was caught crossing a vital fibre optic cable that had been severed near the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard.

Earlier in April, Germany arrested two people on suspicion of planning attacks on behalf of Russia to jeopardize logistical support to Ukraine.

Online disinformation

According to Crump, acts of sabotage can also be accompanied by disinformation campaigns, especially around important issues such as migration.

“The Russians are better at using their military intelligence and cyber weapons coordination operations to carry out acts of sabotage, followed by a media campaign around the attacks,” he said.

Experts say Russia’s disinformation online is being used to promote acts of sabotage. In addition, Putin’s Twitter bots are supporting far-right groups that want to cut off funding to Ukraine and spreading anti-immigration narratives online that sow political instability.

Mr Crump said: “Misinformation online about migration is a pressure point to fuel and create distrust. Russia may not be the cause of this, but they are accelerating it. The aim is to create as much chaos as possible in the West.”

This comes after Russian state media took to social media to spread the claim that the perpetrator of the Southport attacks was an illegal migrant.

Cyber ​​attacks and flight signal disruption

In the past, direct attacks have been carried out on British government agencies. Experts say more attacks could follow.

In June, Britain’s cyber intelligence agency GCHQ raised growing concerns about links between Russian intelligence services and proxy groups that carry out cyberattacks and physical sabotage.

The Russian hackers behind the NHS attack are part of a wider cyber army working under the auspices of the Kremlin to destabilise the UK in the run-up to the election. i has previously reported.

Months earlier, it was reported that Russia had jammed signals that affected a plane carrying British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps returning from Poland

Military escalation

Putin has warned that lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range Western missiles to strike deep inside his country would be seen as an act of war. Russian officials often use nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

However, experts point out that similar threats have been made since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but have not led to a material escalation.

This comes after Putin claimed that the US and UK may be helping Ukraine target targets with missile systems supplied by the West. He told reporters: “The Ukrainian military is not capable of using advanced, highly accurate, long-range systems supplied by the West” without NATO’s help.

The US military already provides intelligence to Ukraine and has previously assisted in targeted operations widely reported in the US and UK.

According to experts, this is a signal that Putin’s threats are not provoked by new information obtained by Moscow or by the use of long-range weapons in general, but rather that he is using such remarks to dissuade NATO countries from further supporting Ukraine’s war effort.

Defence analyst and NATO historian Peter Caddick-Adams said: “Putin is trying to shake things up, hoping he can put pressure on NATO countries to try to delay and prevent the authorisation of long-range weapons to strike Russian territory.”

“In terms of strong military strikes on Ukraine, Putin doesn’t have many options left. Instead, they are using diplomatic means and verbal intimidation, and the rhetoric is part of that,” he added.