Bangladesh and the next India-Pakistan war

I would like to write about the current situation in Bangladesh. Much has been said about the recent coup that took place there, but I would like to point out that we may be witnessing the beginning stages of a new Indo-Pakistan war, and it may start over Bangladesh. The reason for this is that the people who want to take over Bangladesh now are pro-Pakistan. Bangladesh used to be a part of Pakistan, and if the former tries to rejoin the latter, it would mean that Pakistan would be bordering India on both sides. If Bangladesh decides to rejoin Pakistan, India would send troops to Bangladesh in a new war with Pakistan. In 1971, Bangladesh declared its independence from Pakistan. That same year, Pakistani soldiers along with pro-Pakistan Bengali Islamists (members of Jamaat-e-Islami) massacred and raped Bangladesh. They killed up to 3 million people and raped hundreds of thousands. All this happened with the support of Henry Kissinger. India eventually invaded Bangladesh, pushed Pakistan out and secured Bangladesh’s independence. If the forces supporting Bangladesh to return to Pakistan take over and try to fulfill their mission, India will intervene to prevent Pakistan from expanding its border with India. We could very well be witnessing the beginning stages of a new India-Pakistan war.

Today, Pakistan is an ally of the US and Saudi Arabia, while India has relations with America’s arch-enemy Iran. In May 2024, India signed a 10-year contract with Iran to develop and operate Iran’s Narendra port of Chabahar, cementing its relationship with a geostrategic Middle Eastern country. Vedant Patel, deputy spokesperson for the US State Department, warned India when asked about the Iranian port deal:

“Any entity, anyone considering doing business with Iran, needs to be aware of the potential risks they are exposing themselves to and the potential risk of sanctions.”

The US is in a league of its own compared to India (and perhaps this explains why there is suddenly an endless supply of videos showing how dirty India is on social media). It wouldn’t be the first time that the US has supported a coup in Bangladesh, as we read in First Post:

On 15 August 1975, the country’s founding father, Bangandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was assassinated along with most of his family members and the Awami League government was ousted from power. The coup, carried out by a small clique of Majors, was masterminded by the American CIA and Pakistan’s ISI operating through some Trojan horses in the Awami League and the Bangladesh Army, such as the then deputy chief, Ziaur Rahman.

So, if a conflict arises over Bangladesh, the US could use Pakistan (an ally of Saudi Arabia, which is a key ally of the US) as a vassal state against India, to crush any country that opposes the US world order.

Sheikh Hasina was overthrown in a coup in August 2024. She was strongly pro-Russian, much to the ire (of course) of the United States. Amid the onslaught of sanctions imposed on Russia at the start of the war in Ukraine, Bangladesh deepened its ties with Moscow under Hasina. In October 2023, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would supply nuclear fuel to Bangladesh’s Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). According to Russia’s Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation, “The fuel for the Rooppur NPP was produced in Russia at the Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant (NCCP), an enterprise of Rosatom’s Fuel Division.” The Financial Express reported that “Hasina’s ties with Moscow have not gone down well with many Western countries” and that this “geopolitical stance has been reflected in the growing US support for Bangladesh’s main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).”

The same newspapers reported how “Bangladesh joined the BRICS group, a coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The growing influence of the BRICS group in the global economic and political arena has made it a coveted alliance for many developing countries. Hasina’s move to align Bangladesh with the BRICS group signaled a shift toward a more diversified foreign policy, less dependent on Western powers.” Hasina’s ousting from power is clearly an advantage for the US. But who is rising in Bangladesh’s political realm? The pro-Pakistan Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). After Sheikh Hasina was toppled, her nemesis, Khaleda Zia, a former prime minister and chairwoman of the BNP, was released from years of house arrest. According to the Economic Times, “Zia’s party is likely to win the elections that the interim government will now hold.” The BNP is an ally of Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islamist group that participated in the 1971 massacre and rape of Bangladesh. So if the BNP comes to power, India will have to worry about a rising Pakistan and its Islamist ally. Although Hasina is an enemy of the BNP, she has good relations with India and this is evident from the fact that she fled to India after the coup. The BNP sees this as further proof that India is an enemy. A senior BNP leader said, “The BNP believes that Bangladesh and India should have mutual cooperation… The Indian government will have to understand that spirit and behave in a manner that follows that spirit. But if you help our enemy, it becomes difficult to honour that mutual cooperation.” If the pro-Pakistan forces take over Bangladesh, they will use it as a base to launch attacks on India. Moreover, Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, will also use Bangladesh as a major base for India. As the Economic Times reported, Zia allowed this to happen when she was prime minister:

During Zia’s tenure, anti-India forces had free rein to use Bangladesh as a base for terrorism and other subversive activities. Pakistan’s ISI had a strong presence in Dhaka during Zia’s last years in power between 2001 and 2006 and was instrumental in a series of terror attacks in India by terror groups. The insurgent groups from northeastern India operated from bases in Bangladesh, reportedly under the patronage of the ISI, during the BNP government. After Hasina came to power, she ordered a crackdown and extradited the insurgent leaders to India.

There were many more examples of ISI ties with Bangladesh during Zia’s rule: the ISI paid for Zia’s election bill in 1991, a revelation made by none other than former ISI leader Assad Durani

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Before the 2014 elections, Bangladeshi intelligence agencies told India about ISI’s attempts to revive terror groups in Bangladesh in support of Tareque Zia, the exiled son of Khalida Zia, ET reported. Tareque, who effectively ruled the country as BNP chief from 2001 to 2006 when his mother was serving her second term, was accused of having close ties with ISI and terror operatives including Ulfa leader Paresh Baruah and mafia boss Dawood Ibrahim.