Bills offense posts insane efficiency numbers in two 2024 games

The Buffalo Bills have had a good offense for a while now. Since Josh Allen’s breakout season in 2020, Bills Mafia has become accustomed to the Bills’ offense topping many offensive efficiency metrics, particularly in the passing game. Even in 2023, when the team fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey (now with the Cleveland Browns) after 10 games, the Bills still ranked third in the NFL in regular-season Expected Points Added (EPA) per play at 0.10 (all EPA figures courtesy of SumerSports).

And somehow, despite an admittedly limited number of games in 2024, Buffalo is surpassing its offensive efficiency numbers from previous years.

The Bills have an offensive EPA per play of 0.21 so far this year, which is vastly above their mark from last year. Their EPA per pass has increased even further, from 0.12 in 2023 to 0.37 in 2024. Their offensive success rate has increased from 48.5% to 58.3%.

In short, the Bills have proven to be a true offensive machine so far in 2024.

How exactly the team has done this is interesting when you look at the differences between last year and now. The team is still running 75-80% of their plays in 2×2 or 3×1 sets, like most teams do. They’re still not using play action at a high rate (16% of dropbacks so far in 2024, 22% in 2023). They’re not throwing screens noticeably more often (12% of pass plays in 2024, 9% in 2023).

There are a few areas where meaningful differences can be found. The first is the added value of pass plays through yards after catch (YAC). The Bills are currently allowing 0.25 YAC EPA per pass. Last year, that number was -0.35. In 2023, the Bills are averaging 5.2 yards after catch per reception. This year, that number has increased to 6.9. These items, combined with quarterback Josh Allen’s career-high completion percentage of 73.8% and his career-low average distance of target of 7.7 yards, begin to paint a story:

The offense is helping Allen more than we’re used to, at least so far in 2024.

The receivers help him more with yards after the catch. The offensive structure allows for shorter and more efficient passes with more opportunities for easy completions. It’s not like the offensive structure is designed around fast passes; Allen’s 3.03 average time to throw is the highest of his career. But with teams always trying to stop the big play down the field against him, Allen can make sure there’s no big play to be made in air yards, throw the ball underneath him, and know that the receivers and offensive line can help him still get what the team needs to be successful on that play.

Anecdotally, it seems like Allen doesn’t feel the need to be Superman on every play. Instead, he can be Superman on a few plays per game that set him apart from most other people on the planet and know that if he’s not, that’s probably okay.

And it all adds up to the Buffalo Bills’ offense being in more than good shape heading into the 2024 regular season.

…and so the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan of Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and watch for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network – Check out more in my LinkTree!