Ecuador officially calls elections despite fears of rising violence

The National Electoral Council of Ecuador (CNE) has officially called general elections for February 9, 2025.

About 14 million eligible Ecuadorians were called upon to elect the president, 151 members of the assembly (up from 137 now) and five deputies in the Andean parliament.

The call came after fears grew among the population that violence in the South American country would worsen from February due to the presence of drug cartels and other organised crime groups.

The facts seem to confirm these fears. On September 12, the same day that the CNE called the elections, María Daniela Icaza, director of the Litoral prison, the largest in the country, was shot dead.

Nine days earlier, Alex Guevara, director of a prison in the Amazonian province of Sucumbíos, was assassinated.

On September 15, a shooting broke out during a soccer match in the Amazonian province of Orellana. There were no casualties, but the population of the oil region was thrown into turmoil.

In April, just before the referendum called by President Daniel Noboa, in which most of the questions concerned legal and constitutional reforms related to security, two mayors were assassinated amid a surge in violence and threats of attacks.

“I think that organized crime is going to play a role in these elections, because they are looking for the candidate or government under which they feel most comfortable operating, and that means they will take a series of measures,” Cristian Carpio, a senior analyst at political risk consultancy Prófitas, told BNamericas.

The new president is expected to serve between May 2025 and May 2029.

Noboa, who is running for re-election in February, replaced Guillermo Lasso to finish his presidential term. In May of last year, Lasso, citing a constitutional provision, dissolved the National Assembly in the face of an impeachment vote that threatened to remove him from office, and called for early presidential and legislative elections.

The presidential elections of August last year were marked by extreme violence, with anti-corruption candidate Fernando Villavicencio being assassinated.

“The last elections marked a before and after in Ecuadorian politics. We all hope that the elections will be a democratic celebration, which allows an informed vote to address the country’s main problems. I am sorry to say that there are no conditions for that ideal situation,” political analyst Ana Changuín told BNamericas.

REGISTRATION

The official registration of candidates began on September 13 and will last until October 2. Before the official process began, 17 candidates had registered, but experts believe that some of them will not register their candidacy in the end.

According to the latest polls from August, Noboa and Luisa González, a candidate from the political movement of former left-wing President Rafael Correa, are the favorites.

According to polling agency Cedatos Gallup, the right-wing Noboa received 54% of the votes, followed by González with 25%.

“You always have to take into account the different scenarios. I think that at this point, despite the voting intention that the polls show, it is still too early to predict what could happen. The first filter will be to see who finally registers as a candidate. Nothing is certain yet and I think there could be surprises,” says Changuín.

Three factors that could influence voting intentions are the electricity crisis the country is facing (which could lead to power outages), crime and economic problems, including unemployment.

According to Carpio, the government is doing everything it can to prevent major power outages, which could have consequences for President Noboa’s image and ratings, but also for security problems and the economic situation.

“The measures taken to improve public perception in these areas are crucial,” he adds.