Is the end near for Yahya Sinwar?

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Gaza Strip in a tunnel in Khan Younis in southern Gaza, October 10, 2023 (IDF Spokesperson)

The Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, has a specialized unit dedicated to tracking down Yahya and Muhammad Sinwar, senior leaders of Hamas’s military wing in the Gaza Strip. The two men planned the October 7, 2023 invasion and massacre of Israel.

According to security sources, the elimination of the two brothers is only a matter of time. The chances of them finding their hideout are growing as the IDF steps up military operations in areas such as Khan Younis.

A process of “Jordanization” of Yahya Sinwar, head of Hamas’ political office, has begun in Jordan. This follows the results of the parliamentary elections in which the Muslim Brotherhood secured 31 seats. On the Jordanian street, Yahya Sinwar is now being referred to as the new “Jordanian commander.” Mentions of former army chief Muhammad Deif have declined, with many believing that Israel has eliminated him.

As Yahya Sinwar’s popularity in Jordan grows, the Shin Bet’s hunt for him and his brother Muhammad has intensified. Muhammad Sinwar now heads the military wing of Hamas after the alleged death of Deif.

A former senior Shin Bet official claims that both brothers will be taken out soon, as the “hunting ring” tightens around them. “It’s only a matter of time. If we can reach Muhammad Deif, who has been hunting them for 30 years, we will reach them,” he said.

As Israel dismantles Hamas’ military infrastructure in Gaza, intelligence advances are likely to pinpoint their location. Since October 7, the Shin Bet and the IDF have deployed units to gather intelligence on the Sinwar brothers.

These efforts previously resulted in the killings of Hamas soldier Muhammad Deif, Hamas Chief of Staff Marwan Issa and numerous senior figures involved in attacks on Israeli civilians.

The intelligence team, made up of dozens of Shin Bet personnel, works closely with IDF forces in Gaza to achieve operational accessibility that was previously impossible. In the field of human intelligence (HUMINT), there is no substitute for direct contact with sources.

Shin Bet agents work tirelessly day and night, waiting for that “Golden Information” that will reveal the location of the Sinwar brothers or some error in their behavior that will lead Israeli forces to them.

Current Israeli intelligence indicates that Yahya and Muhammad Sinwar are hiding in the Khan Yunis area, their hometown, where they have likely set up several hideouts.

The Sinwar brothers are constantly on the move and are guarded by Hamas’ elite “Shadow Unit” and are not always near Israeli hostages. They are believed to be holding as many as 20 as human shields.

Only a select few know the exact details of their whereabouts. Their communication relies on couriers and written letters to avoid detection. They rarely emerge from tunnels to make brief phone calls before disappearing again.

So far, they have managed to stay ahead in this deadly game of cat and mouse.

Despite Sinwar’s caution, sources of intelligence are growing

Israeli security forces are increasing pressure and using various intelligence methods to provoke a misstep. Israeli intelligence is confident that the Sinwar brothers remain in Gaza and have not fled to Egypt or elsewhere, meaning that their capture or elimination is only a matter of time.

Shin Bet has already reconstructed many of the Sinwar brothers’ movements, albeit not in real time. This information provides valuable insights into their methods and contacts.

Taking out Yahya and Muhammad Sinwar would be a huge operational and psychological blow to Hamas, and would create a leadership vacuum that Israel could exploit.

Hamas has reportedly already identified Yahya Sinwar’s successor: Muhammad Darwish, head of the movement’s Shura Council. Even the Hamas leadership understands that Yahya Sinwar is living on borrowed time and will likely be eliminated by Israel.

The brothers have no intention of surrendering or seeking banishment in exchange for hostages.

As one senior security official put it, “They have a death wish. They are sophisticated and operate like mafia bosses, but the Shin Bet knows how to deal with them. This is a mind game, but eventually Israeli intelligence and the IDF’s operational capabilities will reach them.”