As election approaches, Republicans pump millions into anti-immigrant campaign • Pennsylvania Capital-Star

By Adolfo Flores, Capital & Main

As November approaches, Republican candidates and their supporters are spending tens of millions of dollars on anti-immigration messages, paying for television ads that paint the situation at the southern border as a developing crisis or even an invasion.

In July, Republican candidates and right-wing groups spent more than $37 million on anti-immigrant ads in both swing states and border states, bringing their total spending on such ads this year to more than $117 million. That’s far more than the $15 million Democrats have spent on immigration-focused messages this year, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

GOP ad spending nearly doubled in the second quarter, peaking in July, when it funded 114 anti-immigration television ads in federal, state and local elections in 11 pivotal states and Montana.

The ads largely focus on crime, a border wall and what is perceived as a surge in migrants at the border. Buzzwords like “border,” “crime,” “wall” and “fentanyl” are frequently used in the messages, according to the AdImpact analysis commissioned by the advocacy group Immigration Hub.

In one ad, former President Trump’s campaign criticizes Vice President Kamala Harris, claiming the Democratic presidential nominee has failed as the country’s “border czar,” citing millions of illegal border crossings, a quarter-million Americans killed by fentanyl and “brutal migrant crimes.” Another spot takes aim at President Biden for rolling back Trump’s border policies, which it claims have caused a surge in illegal immigration, increased crime and strained public resources, while positioning Trump as the only candidate who can secure the border and “stop the invasion of illegals.”

Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks and analyzes campaign ads, said Republicans see immigration as an issue that resonates with voters, especially in areas where the perception of a crisis at the border could be used to sway opinion.

“Republicans think they can gain political advantage from this,” Ridout said.

While immigration has been a hot-button issue for years, it may not have the same impact on voters’ daily lives as issues closer to home, such as inflation or health care, he said.

“It’s not inflation — I see that every day when I go to the grocery store or fill up my gas tank,” Ridout said. “Immigration is something that’s much less immediate.”

Overall, voters see the economy, inflation and protecting democracy as the most important issues in the election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. For many Republican voters, however, immigration remains a top concern, according to a Chicago City Council poll, with 69% of Republicans saying immigration will be an important factor in deciding who to vote for in this year’s presidential election, compared with 41% of independents and 26% of Democrats.

The anti-immigrant ads are part of a broader narrative the GOP is trying to construct, in which the perception of chaos at the border is directly connected to a larger sense of disorder across the country, Ridout said. This, he said, plays into a hardline Republican effort to portray the party as the solution to a problem they claim Democrats have ignored.

While Republicans have aggressively pushed an anti-immigrant narrative, Democrats, including Harris, have been relatively quiet — perhaps intentionally, as they want to shift the focus to issues traditionally “owned” by Democrats, such as health care, education and Social Security, Ridout said.

Harris has begun “going on the offensive” by talking about her criminal record at the border and her efforts to combat the flow of fentanyl.

“Harris would rather see us all think about reproductive health in this election, rather than immigration,” Ridout said.

For years, Republicans have used immigration as a central theme in their political campaigns, particularly in states like Arizona and Nevada, where ads portray the border as lawless and out of control. They hope to attract voters by highlighting what the GOP sees as Democrats’ failures on immigration, said Beatriz Lopez, deputy director of the Immigration Hub.

That hands-off approach is now changing as the election approaches, Lopez said, adding that Democrats are starting to be more proactive in discussing immigration. While she might be more comfortable focusing on reproductive rights or inflation, Harris has started to “go on the offensive” by talking about her record at the border and her efforts to combat the flow of fentanyl, Lopez said.

In August, Harris ran an ad highlighting her record as a California prosecutor, saying she was cracking down on cartels and putting gang members behind bars for smuggling guns and drugs into the U.S.

“As vice president, she sponsored the toughest border enforcement law in decades,” the ad says. “And as president, she’ll hire thousands more border agents and crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking. Fixing the border is hard. So is Kamala Harris.”

Speaking on the final night of the Democratic National Convention, Harris vowed to bring back a bipartisan border bill that Republicans had defeated in the Senate earlier this year after Trump urged senators to reject it, a move Democrats saw as a political stunt.

‘Let’s fight for it’: Harris vows to find a new way forward and defeat Trump

“I know we can live up to our proud heritage as an immigrant nation and reform our broken immigration system,” Harris said at the DNC. “We can create an earned path to citizenship and secure our border.”

For years, Democrats have allowed Republicans to paint them as lax on immigration, Lopez said. She added that advocates like her organization have pushed Democrats to talk about their immigration policies and explain their vision for improving the country’s immigration system, including addressing the border and expanding legal pathways to citizenship for farm workers, people who entered the country as minors and others without status.

“It will be important for Vice President Harris in particular to continue to expand her positions on this issue,” Lopez said.

Jeremy Hughes, a Republican strategist who has worked extensively in Nevada, said the surge in ad spending reflects the party’s belief that immigration is a defining issue for voters in swing states. Hughes said the ads are intended not only to convince voters that immigration is a critical issue, but also to position the GOP’s position on border security as a strong alternative to what they see as the Democrats’ failures.

In addition to Arizona and Nevada, the ads aired in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, Montana and Wisconsin.

“Immigration is still a driver for undecided voters,” Hughes said.

The GOP’s ads often use loaded terms like “border,” “crime” and “wall” to link criminality to migrants at the border, despite evidence to the contrary. A 2020 study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that U.S.-born citizens are more than twice as likely to be arrested for violent crimes than undocumented immigrants.

It also found that U.S.-born citizens are two and a half times more likely to be arrested for drug crimes and more than four times more likely to be arrested for property crimes compared to undocumented immigrants. Furthermore, a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that immigrants are far less likely to be incarcerated than white or black individuals born in the U.S.

Hughes said the language used in the GOP ads was carefully chosen to resonate with voters, especially in states where the election remains uncertain.

“Campaigns don’t run ads that aren’t effective,” Hughes said. “When you see those phrases and words in the ads, it’s because the campaign has research and focus groups that say these spots will move voters in our direction.”