Threat assessment of organised cybercrime in 2024

Europol (the European Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation) recently published its Internet Organised Crime Threat Assessment 2024, which highlights that ransomware attacks, child sexual exploitation (CSE) and online fraud will be the most threatening forms of cybercrime in the European Union (EU) in 2023.

The report identifies the dark web as the primary motivator for cybercrime, with cybercriminals targeting and exploiting millions of people in the EU every day. Small and medium-sized businesses were found to be the most vulnerable to these attacks, as cybercriminals abuse end-to-end encryption (E2EE) messaging applications, allowing them to share knowledge and tools more discreetly. The market for ransomware, phishing and malware continues to grow, as many can operate from abroad and disguise their illicit activities.

Furthermore, new technologies and the uncontrolled online presence of children have led to a growing proliferation of CSE. The report explains that online groups on E2EE platforms that share violent and sexual content often operate in a similar way to cults, with leaders manipulating members into sharing extreme material for extortion and gratification. The growing presence of AI also increases the number of social engineering attacks and facilitates the objectification of children. Perpetrators often extort money from their victims, in addition to their other demands.

Addressing the root causes of cybercrime, such as financial incentives or socio-economic factors, is essential to prevent these illicit activities. Europol predicts that the future is likely to see an increase in AI-driven attacks, cryptocurrency abuse and the growth of sophisticated fraud schemes, making a coordinated international response crucial to counter these evolving threats.

For more information, please see HSDL’s Focus Topics on Cyber ​​Threat Actors, Ransomware, and Human Trafficking.