Best Bets, Lines for Steelers, Saints, Bills and More

After a fairly routine Week 1, the second week of the NFL season brought chaos back into the mix. Eight of the 16 games featured underdogs as outright winners, including five that entered Week 2 as six-point dogs or worse.

Unfortunately, we failed to jump on that trend in the Scumbag Picks, resulting in a completely neutral week. Zero units gained, zero units lost.

That gives us another day to bet, this time with another week of data to analyze. We know the NFC South is better than we expected, except for the team that just benched the 2023 first-overall pick. We know the Buffalo Bills are playing like a team that didn’t just drop a bunch of veterans in the offseason. And we know the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers look a lot like the 2023 Steelers. And 2022. And 2021.

Let’s use that knowledge and see if we can make some money with it. Rhode Island Scumbag picks are below in blockquotes. My picks — four this week! — follow.

After a terrible first week, it was nice to see my Scumbag picks come up two out of three times in Week 2. Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh defense performed well, and the New England Patriots held on long enough against Seattle to cover them.

Unfortunately, I didn’t make any progress on my unit detriment, thanks to doubling up on the week’s only loss (the Los Angeles Rams’ shell). The highlight of my Sunday, however, was OG Rhody Scumbag sending me a “well done” message in our group chat for my bounce back week.

This week I’m trying to close the gap on Christian a bit, while also taking him down in the RISL Fantasy League (he just became the top scorer of the week). I wish him nothing but failure. On to the picks!

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn-Images

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles (one unit)

I’m jumping on the bandwagon with this one. New Orleans has done nothing but dismantle their opponents the last two weeks. They were incredibly impressive against the JV Carolina Panthers, and even more so against the Dallas Cowboys and their typically steadfast defense.

Derek Carr and the offense look (dare I say it) explosive under Klint Kubiak’s attack. Their defense, always a strength, has answered the bell as well. Philadelphia is coming off a brutal Monday Night Football loss, where a still-not-100 percent Kirk Cousins ​​led the Atlanta Falcons on a 70-yard drive in the final minutes to steal the win.

Now they have to face an offense with a healthy quarterback and a more complete passing game. Oh, and they still have to worry about Alvin Kamara. I think the Saints still do well at home in this game.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) over Denver Broncos (one unit)

I’m backing another surprising 2-0 start by the Buccaneers this week. Baker Mayfield has this offense (mostly) running right now. They went into Detroit as 7.5-point underdogs and beat them outright.

Now they’ll face a Denver Broncos team that couldn’t get anything going last week. Bo Nix and company should be easier to contain than the Detroit Lions, and to top it off we travel with the western team to the east coast for an early slate narrative.

Denver’s Week 2 loss would have been even worse if the Steelers hadn’t been called offensive penalties on two huge George Pickens plays (one of which was a TD), and I don’t believe they have the horses to keep this game within a touchdown. Six-plus point underdogs are 8-0 against the spread this season. This should be the game where we see that trend break.

As our former Scumbag used to say, “I’d bet my salary on this.” (Ed. note: And yet, one unit.)

Brett Davis-Imagn-Images

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over Los Angeles Chargers (one unit)

I’m going to keep going with Pittsburgh. I understand I’m playing a dangerous game by trusting them for two weeks in a row, but I really think they can do it again at home.

Their defense was as advertised when they went to Denver, and it should hold up now that the Chargers are back in town for an early morning cross country game at 1 p.m. Last week, Los Angeles looked downright dominant against a reeling Carolina Panthers team, but Pittsburgh’s offense is more competent and willing to kill time with a formative run game.

The Chargers will undoubtedly attempt to play a similar style of football, focusing on the run game and leaning on solid defense. However, I think Pittsburgh will take advantage of the early start and ultimately outlast the Chargers and their formative pass rush with Justin Fields’ ability to escape pressure for some positive gains.

Last week: 2-1, 0 units
Season so far: 2-4 (.333), -6 units

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn-Images

My non-Scumbag bets for Week 3: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts -1 vs. Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders -5 vs. Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (one unit each)

The Steelers have thrown the ball just 43 times in two games with Justin Fields under center. They’ve run it 77 times — partly because they’re winning, but also because they don’t have a ton of confidence in Fields, whose 6.2-yard field goal average is the lowest of his career. Here’s the run defense Pittsburgh will face in Week 3:

via rbsdm.com and the author.

Granted, those were against the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, but Jim Harbaugh’s run defense is so high above the curve that it would be an elite unit even with some regression. And while the Panthers and Raiders rank 32nd and 31st, respectively, in rushing EPA, the Steelers rank 29th. If Pittsburgh is going to win this game, it will be on the back of Fields’ passing game, which remains uninspiring.

The Colts are 0-2 but play at home and have a pass rushing ability that could give Caleb Williams the same headache he experienced Sunday night.

Andy Dalton gives Carolina a better chance to win than Bryce Young did. He’ll still have to deal with a sieve disguised as an offensive line against Maxx Crosby, who just had two sacks and two quarterback hits against Lamar Jackson. I’m not sold on the idea of ​​a Raiders run based on Week 2, but there shouldn’t be any debate over who’s the better team between them and the Panthers.

Buffalo came out of the gate hot and, despite significant roster turnover, is the favorite to repeat as AFC East champion (again). Jacksonville has some young talent, but lacks the receiving corps to challenge the Bills’ revamped secondary, and the offense is a mess overall. The Jags rank 20th in offensive efficiency, while Buffalo is second. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills are No. 6 and Jacksonville is No. 19. That’s not based on a ton of data, but throw in home-field advantage and a very, very drunk Bills Mafia in prime time and I’m with you.

I was going to put the Seahawks at -4 here too, but their small sample size of games where they failed to pull away from a disappointing opponent is enough to make me second guess myself. I’m up four games in, I’m good.

Last week: 1-1, 0 units
Season so far: 3-1 (.750), +2 units