Bills vs. Jaguars: Five Questions for Big Cat Country

We’re not in London this time, Bills Mafia! The Buffalo Bills take on the Jacksonville Jaguars as part of a Monday night football doubleheader in Week 3. Playing a primetime game is always a big moment for any NFL team, and the Bills may have some extra motivation to show up and show what they can do against a Jaguars team that has struggled for them in recent seasons.

The Bills have gone 1-2 since drafting Buffalo’s Josh Allen in 2018. They haven’t defeated the Jaguars since Jacksonville’s Josh Allen was drafted in 2019. Most matchups between the two clubs tend to feature a fair amount of “weird” football, as defensive tackle Ed Oliver discussed earlier this week.

But with every new season comes new opportunities. Even though the Jaguars are 0-2, it’s likely Bills head coach Sean McDermott has instilled the importance of staying focused and hungry to leave Highmark Stadium with a W.

This week, a Buffalo Rumblings reader favorite returns: five questions. Below, you’ll find my conversation with Gus Logue, site manager and writer at Big Cat Country. Also, check out my answers to Logue’s questions about the Bills (available on the Buffalo Rumblings homepage and linked here when available).

Below, you can read the latest on the Jaguars ahead of Monday night, including what’s really wrong with the team and the importance of tight end Evan Ingram, who’s been dealing with a hamstring injury.

We also catch up on Gabe Davis’ new NFL home, what the Jaguars could do to better utilize their offensive talent and what Jacksonville needs to do to get its first win of the season in a hostile environment.

1. Starting with the elephant in Duval and what is certainly a multi-layered question: What specifically is wrong with the Jacksonville Jaguars? Despite their identical 2022-23 record, the Jaguars seem to have fallen off the edge of what was a promising postseason cliff during Doug Pederson’s first season. Is there anything you can point to that explains this?

Jacksonville’s defense hasn’t been spectacular during Pederson’s tenure, but it also hasn’t been *the* problem. It’s clear to anyone who has followed the Jaguars for the past year or more that the offense isn’t as good as it could/should be with Trevor Lawrence at the helm. They beat themselves up way too often, whether that’s in the form of botched blocks, dropped passes, pre-snap penalties, etc. There seems to be a trust issue between Jacksonville’s players and coaches. We don’t know who’s calling plays this season, but whether or not Press Taylor is in the headset doesn’t matter. This is Doug Pederson’s team and Doug Pederson’s offense, and it just has to be better. His seat is getting hot.

2. To an outsider, it would seem that tight end Evan Engram has been the key to the Jaguars’ success over the past two seasons, with 187 receptions for 1,792 yards and eight touchdowns. If he can’t play, how would that change Jacksonville’s offensive strategy?

Engram suffered a hamstring injury in pregame warmups last week, and his unexpected absence certainly didn’t help matters against Cleveland’s vaunted defense. This is an oversimplification, but Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. are the deep threats, while Engram and Christian Kirk are the short targets for Jacksonville. With Engram nursing an injury and Kirk being unusually quiet to start the season, the Jaguars have failed to thrive in a fast-paced game and keep the offense in a rhythm like they did last season. Brenton Strange and Luke Farrell are the next men up at tight end. They’re slightly better blockers and much worse receivers than Engram, so expect Jacksonville to lean on its running game and make action shots out of 12 personnel on Monday night. That said, Kirk will have to step up more than anyone without Engram, especially with Bills slot man Taron Johnson out of the game.

3. Bills fans will be interested to hear how Gabe Davis is doing. Has his penchant for making catches at a coin-flip rate followed him south, and what kind of usage has he found with the Jaguars?

You might not know it based on his 6-catch, 105-yard stat line through two games, but Davis is thriving in Jacksonville’s scheme. He’s being used much more in the midfield than he was in Buffalo, where he was reportedly viewed as a deep threat. “Big Play Gabe” is still an explosive receiver, but his catch radius and route intelligence (i.e., knowing how to adjust routes against man or zone coverage) are now maximized in Jacksonville. Davis is enjoying career highs in catch percentage (60%) and yards per target (10.5) so far this season.

4. In a recent article on Buffalo Rumblings , we tried to dig deeper into what the Jags are doing well so far in 2024. After two games, it seems like they’re running the ball really well, but aren’t making it a priority on game day. What do you think is behind this reluctance to better utilize an obvious strength?

The Jaguars have actually made their run game a priority on game day. They rank below-average in total rushing attempts because they rank below-average in total snaps. Fans have even called for fewer runs because it takes the ball out of Lawrence’s hands. But the Jaguars’ coaches insist on establishing the run, partly to take the ball out of Lawrence’s hands under the assumption that they’re making his job easier (they’re not, as Jacksonville has had far too many third-and-long situations, making Lawrence’s job *even* harder) and partly to force opposing defenses to use two-high safety coverages so they can attack downfield. Jacksonville should put more on Lawrence’s plate and let him cook on early downs instead of treating him like a Jared Goff or a Baker Mayfield.

5. What do the Jaguars need to do if they want to get their first win of the season on the road against the Bills?

Force Josh Allen into a foul or three. Even if Jacksonville’s offense rebounds this week, it would be a surprise to see them score 30-plus points in Buffalo. Jacksonville’s defense — led by famed DL coach Ryan Nielsen — will need to make tackles and win on early downs to make Allen feel like he has to don a superhero cape. I don’t see the Jaguars winning this game unless they win the turnover battle. And since turnovers decide most games anyway, I’ll add this: I don’t see the Jaguars winning this game unless Brian Thomas Jr. gets 100-plus receiving yards. Jacksonville needs to get its dynamic rookie going early and often.

My thanks to Gus Logue for a great exchange this week! Be sure to check out everything happening over at Big Cat Country, including my Bills-focused answers for this edition of Five Questions.