5 Questions for Buffalo Rumblings: What We Learned About the Bills

As the Jacksonville Jaguars prepare to take on the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, we spoke with Buffalo Rumblings’ Matt Byham to learn more about their opponent.

Question 1: Is it safe to say that expectations are high in Buffalo? Super Bowl or failed, or is there anything other than a championship that can be considered a successful season for the Bills?

I believe that when a team’s quarterback is Josh Allen, the Super Bowl is always the goal. His talent doesn’t grow on trees and there’s a finite number of seasons to play out his best attributes as a nightmare for defenses. So, of course, there’s a definite amount of expectation involved.

But is this season an outlier? It’s hard to say, but most people would view 2024 as a rebuilding/reformulation season rather than a Lombardi Trophy contender. At least before Week 1. So I think it’s more accurate to say that missing out on a Super Bowl berth is more forgivable than in past seasons — or at least would have been before a 2-0 start that has the Bills Mafia hyped for the new season.

If you ask Bills fans of a certain age whether it’s a Super Bowl or a bust, they’ll tell you it’s been that way ever since Buffalo failed to get back to the big game. However, those fans who weren’t alive or old enough to remember Buffalo’s Super Bowl teams may have the greatest desire to see the Bills get there. It’s probably true that Jaguars fans can sympathize with the desire to see their favorite team reach and win the Super Bowl.

Because I fear I haven’t answered your question well enough, I’ll say this: I don’t believe it’s a Super Bowl or a bust. So much has changed, and I suspect many would view the team’s ability to make the playoffs (while winning a franchise-record fifth consecutive AFC East division title) and beat the Kansas City Chiefs as a successful season.

I honestly don’t know how Bills Mafia would make it to the Super Bowl and lose. That feels worse to me than not making it at all.

Question 2: Tight end Dalton Kincaid has had a quiet start to the season. Do you expect him to come back in bigger numbers, or can Buffalo’s well-rounded offense prevent that?

If you’re wondering if he can bounce back with an improved stat line this week? Sure, that’s an option. The Bills are busy building chemistry within their self-proclaimed “everybody eats” passing attack, and that includes rethinking how and when key players like Dalton Kincaid are involved.

There’s still a good chance that Kincaid will lead all pass catchers in targets, yards and scores by the end of the season. It’s just that Kincaid, who was a rookie last season learning the ropes while the offense was in a rut thanks to a moody Stefon Diggs and a very inefficient Gabe Davis (you may have heard of him), has taken on a much bigger share of the playbook this season.

I really don’t know what to expect from a Bills receiver this season, because they have a lot of options. Khalil Shakir has become Allen’s go-to after two weeks, but Kincaid should play a similar role in the coming weeks.

What would get in the way of the potential for fantasy-like numbers in the passing game and Kincaid’s chances as a receiver? A greater commitment to running the ball, as you pointed out in Buffalo’s well-rounded offense. It’s early and hard to get into too many trends.

That said, there are only so many drives in a game, and teams want to keep the ball away from Josh Allen and company. Through two games, defenses have done a good job of limiting Kincaid’s involvement, so it’s up to offensive coordinator Joe Brady to find different ways to open him up. He’s a nightmare matchup waiting to happen against most linebackers in the seam as a vertical threat.

Question 3: How do injuries affect the defensive aspect of the ball?

So many times last season I spent a lot of digital ink discussing the Bills’ alarming injury situation. And yet here I am again, in the unlikely company of Bill Murray’s Phil Connors a la “Groundhog Day.”

So how has the loss of both starting linebackers Matt Milano (biceps injury) and Terrel Bernard (pecs injury), and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson (forearm injury from friendly fire) affected Buffalo’s defense? As strange as it may sound, it’s paid off.

Through two games, the Bills have held an impressive list of wide receivers and tight ends to 13 receptions for 99 yards — and no touchdowns. Beginning in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo’s defense gave rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. and tight end Trey McBride trouble. Harrison finished with 1 catch on 3 targets for a harmless 4 yards, while McBride managed just 5 receptions on 9 targets for 30 yards.

Against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, the Bills essentially neutralized the vaunted duo of Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill caught 3 passes on 6 targets for 24 yards, while Waddle hauled in all 4 of his targets for 41 yards.

Are the Bills a much better defense with Milano, Bernard and Johnson blocking the middle of the defense? Undeniably — and it’s a little crazy to think that they’ll have lost everyone at that level of defense before Week 3.

If you can imagine doing a cost-benefit analysis of the situation, it’s an incredible situation. Depth players get a lot of extended play as starters, and they excel within their opportunities. The most unlikely cast of characters have played a key role in the Bills winning their first two games, from defensive backs Ja’Marcus Ingram and Cam Lewis to linebackers Dorian Williams and Baylon Spector. These aren’t household names, but they far exceed their level of experience on the field and surprise a lot of people.

The same goes for both safeties, with the Bills missing presumptive starters in Mike Edwards and rookie Cole Bishop for most of training camp and the preseason. While they are now healthy, they are behind backups Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin.

Most Bills fans would have told you that the biggest concern was how things would play out at safety after the departures of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. And so far, things have been going well. There’s still a lot to be said about who the starter is and will remain at both safety positions, but the Bills appear to have more strength than questions on the floor right now.

Question 4: Which player is still unknown and should Jaguars fans keep an eye on?

I’ll give you two players to watch: one on offense, one on defense. Wide receiver Mack Hollins is a player I’ve pegged to play a major role in the offense for the Bills this season. He’s also an incredibly interesting and unique guy.

Hollins may be the most unlikely candidate, given his status as a craftsman and the fact that he’s been used largely as a special teams player in previous stops. At 31, Hollins has yet to make an NFL announcement, but his work during training camp and the connection he’s built with Josh Allen have been eye-opening.

Sure, it’s still tough to imagine a Bills wide receiver making a dominant, WR1-like impact week after week, but Hollins has proven himself capable and reliable in a short amount of time. His two-game stat line won’t jump off the page (2 catches on 3 targets for 25 yards, 1 TD), but his long speed is real, and he best represents a player capable of taking up the mantle vacated by Gabe Davis. So why am I bringing Hollins to your attention? I see him as a major red-zone threat to score touchdowns.

On defense, it has to be cornerback Christian Benford. Benford, a former sixth-round draft pick of the Bills in the 2022 NFL Draft, has become a major force on the outside. He’s arguably one of the most underrated players in the NFL right now. Benford wasn’t drafted much, so it’s understandable that he escapes the attention of most analysts, but he has outpaced the team’s top pick in 2022: former first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam.

Now, Elam’s story is complicated, and his storyline may be redemptive, but the fact remains that Benford has performed when and where Elam has not. The biggest criticism of Benford is his propensity for injuries. Including the playoffs, Benford has missed 12 games in two seasons. As with any player, some of that is due to bad luck.

While Benford hasn’t shown elite pre-draft measurables, Benford has more than convinced people that he’s a much faster, more skilled, and more aggressive player, despite his small-school background (Villanova). He’s best suited to play as a zone corner, but he’s proven wrong the doubters who said he shouldn’t play as a man. Keep an eye on #47 on Monday night.

Question 5: The Jaguars are 5.5 point underdogs this week according to FanDuel Sports BettingDo you expect the Bills to win the game? And do you have a favorite player to recommend for the game?

Considering the history between these two clubs since 2018, when Josh Allen entered the NFL, you’d expect that anything could happen but that the outcome would be close. I think the Bills have a chance to bridge that gap with their Josh Allen, and some extra motivation from him should be to finally have a great game against the Jags. (Don’t underestimate the desire for revenge for that fake home game in London last season — against an away team that had two weeks to acclimate on foreign soil.)

Jacksonville has proven to be one of Buffalo’s toughest opponents in recent seasons, going 3-1 in their last four against Allen and the Bills. This matchup reminds me of the rivalry between the Bills and Houston Oilers (boo Titans) from the ’90s — mostly because of the existence of a true cross-division rivalry. Plenty of people are wondering if it’s the defensive style, where 3-4 base alignments have often had more success between the sticks against previous receiver rooms. Will that prove to be true Monday night against Buffalo’s new group?

Unfortunately, I don’t have a favorite player prop bet for the Bills to offer you. I’m not as well versed in prop betting as some. Incredibly, I enjoy the sport without gambling. That said, I’m inclined to believe that Josh Allen is always a threat to surpass his expected touchdown per game.

That’s less of a sure bet against the Jaguars, though. If we ignore Allen’s production, it’s a fair bet to believe running back James Cook sees at least 15 carries and significant touchdown opportunities as a runner or receiver.

Thanks Matt for taking the time to answer our questions!

What do you think of the Week 3 matchup, Jaguars fans? Let us know in the comments!