France has a new government. Can it solve the crisis in New Caledonia after months of deadly unrest?

NICE, France (AP) — After four months of deadly unrest in New Caledonia, tensions are rising in France’s Pacific region between the pro-independence indigenous Kanak people and white settler communities loyal to Paris, as the vast archipelago east of Australia marks the anniversary of its colonization on Tuesday.

The communities are divided over the future of the territory following a Kanak uprising in May against New Caledonia President Emmanuel Macron’s electoral reforms. Loyalists have called on supporters in the capital, Noumea, to mark the 171st anniversary of the French takeover by honking horns during a radio broadcast of the French national anthem, La Marseillaise.

Separately, the National Council of Chiefs of the Kanak people is meeting on neighbouring Mare Island and is expected to unilaterally declare sovereignty over the Kanak nation in their customary territories. Macron shelved the controversial voting reform — along with the situation in New Caledonia — in June after dissolving parliament and calling for early legislative elections.

While mainland France was embroiled in an unprecedented political crisis following the inconclusive vote in July and the euphoria surrounding the Paris Olympics, it was French police and military forces that largely dealt with the unrest and discontent in New Caledonia, conducting raids and arresting authorities suspected of involvement in violence, including clashes, looting and arson. Thirteen people were killed and €2.2 million worth of damage was caused to businesses, homes and public property.

Since the start of Macron’s presidency in 2017, the French Pacific region has become central to his Indo-Pacific strategy, as he has sought to boost France’s influence in the region where China and the US have been vying for power. New Caledonia is a major global producer of nickel, a crucial raw material needed to make electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, steel and other everyday items.

French Colonialism vs. Independence Struggle

New Caledonia became French in 1853 under Emperor Napoleon III, Napoleon’s nephew and heir. It became an overseas territory after World War II, with French citizenship granted to all Kanaks in 1957. The Pacific archipelago of about 300,000 people is 10 time zones ahead of Paris and is known to tourists for its UNESCO World Heritage atolls and reefs.

Tensions have simmered for decades between the indigenous Kanaks, who have long sought to break away from France after suffering harsh segregation measures and widespread discrimination, and the descendants of colonists and other white settlers who want it to remain part of France. People of European descent in New Caledonia distinguish between descendants of colonists and descendants of the many prisoners forcibly sent to the area. In the 1980s, tensions between the communities erupted into violence that brought the archipelago to the brink of civil war.

Peace Agreement to End All Peace

In 1988, a peace agreement was reached between rival parties. Ten years later, France promised to give greater political power and broad autonomy to New Caledonia and the Kanak people, and to hold up to three consecutive referendums, which could pave the way for self-determination as part of the deal known as the Noumea Accord.

The three referendums were held between 2018 and 2021 and a majority of voters opted to remain part of France rather than support independence. The pro-independence Kanak people rejected the results of the last referendum in 2021, which they boycotted because it was held at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic that severely affected the Kanak community.

Tensions rose and intensified earlier this year when Macron pushed through parliament a bill aimed at amending the French constitution and changing electoral rolls in New Caledonia. It gave the right to vote in local elections to residents who had settled there in the past decade, raising fears among the indigenous population that their rights would be further eroded and their identity erased.

Police crack down on pro-independence group

The controversial bill’s passage by both houses of the French parliament in May sparked mass demonstrations that turned violent, prompting Macron to declare a state of emergency and send thousands of police and army reinforcements to the remote region. Thirteen people, mostly Kanaks, and two police officers have been killed and nearly 3,000 arrested since New Caledonia police launched an investigation just days after protests turned violent in May.

Among those detained in large-scale police operations were 11 Kanak activists from the pro-independence group The Field Action Coordination Unit, which has been organizing protests against French rule since April. Seven of the detained activists, including Christian Tein, a Kanak leader, were flown 17,000 kilometers (10,500 miles) from their homes to seven prisons in mainland France for pre-trial detention.

Eroding trust and no hope for dialogue

The activists’ transfer in June sparked new riots across the archipelago, widening the divide between communities and destroying what little confidence remained in the willingness of political actors to overcome vast differences over New Caledonia’s future and economic disparities with “concrete and serious negotiations” that Macron had demanded during his whirlwind trip to Noumea in May.

Tein’s group accused French authorities of “colonial practices” and demanded the activists’ immediate release and return to their homeland. They vowed that “the Kanak people will never give up their desire for independence through peaceful means.” Then-French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said the Field Action Coordination Unit was “a mafia-like organization” made up of “delinquents and criminals” operating under the guise of a pro-independence movement. His comments sparked anger among Kanak leaders, with Grand Chief Hippolyte Sinewami-Htamumu expressing his full support for the pro-independence group.

New Prime Minister, New Policy?

After weeks of wrestling with political blocs in a divided parliament, Macron’s new Prime Minister Michel Barnier formed a new government on Saturday. France’s mounting debt and a new budget top Barnier’s agenda. But many have called on the veteran politician and former EU Brexit negotiator to change France’s approach to New Caledonia and address the security and economic crisis with policies that would deliver on the promise of the Noumea accord: a “common destiny” and, ultimately, “full emancipation.”

Barnier is expected to outline his approach in his inaugural policy speech to the National Assembly, the influential lower house of France’s parliament, on Oct. 1. His first decision on New Caledonia will likely be whether to hold or postpone provincial elections scheduled for Dec. 15.

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