Iran on the March: Restoring Deterrence and Stability in the Middle East

In a world where US adversaries around the world are strengthening their strategic partnerships to undermine American power and influence, Michael Singh rightly emphasizes the need to integrate US policy towards the Middle East into an overarching US strategy.

China now stands stronger in the Middle East than ever before, thanks in large part to President Biden’s appeasement of Iran. Iranian oil is flowing freely to China at levels not seen since the era of the Iran nuclear deal. The easing of pressure on both Iran and the Houthis has increased the threat to U.S. shipping in the Red Sea.

The Saudi court’s sense of abandonment, the ongoing political warfare against Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and the subversion of the core idea of ​​the Abraham Accords have pushed Saudi Arabia deeper into the arms of the Chinese. Riyadh is now pursuing a hedging strategy against the United States (a hedging that will continue regardless of what bilateral executive agreement the White House unveils in the coming weeks).

Both countries are now refusing to admit the obvious: the “oil-for-security” doctrine is over. China is trying to fill the vacuum, offering to broker regional security to ensure its Persian Gulf-based energy supply in a future conflict. This has important implications for U.S. contingency planning.

Moscow, too, is more than happy with a climate of relaxed sanctions on Iran and Syria. Sanctions relief for both regimes is sanctions relief for Russia. Biden’s refusal to roll back UN sanctions on Iran has legitimized Russia’s import of Iranian drones (and perhaps soon ballistic missiles). Support for Russia’s multibillion-dollar civil nuclear buildup in Iran keeps Rosatom afloat, undermining efforts to extort revenues for Putin and slow China’s nuclear buildup.

A much clearer point for both China and Russia: To the extent that Iran can foment anti-American chaos—whether in the Middle East or closer to home—American resources must be diverted. We delude ourselves into believing that Beijing and Moscow share an American and European commitment to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The mere threat of Iran’s nuclear threshold status already deters policymakers in Washington from taking bolder measures to counter Tehran’s malign activities. A nuclear-armed Iran allying with China, alongside a Saudi Arabia that has become Switzerland (or worse, a full-fledged CCP partner), would dramatically alter America’s response options in a future war with China.

There is also the issue of how financial and energy sanctions work—something that many “grand strategists” in the national security space overlook. When Iran cooperates with China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, or North Korea, sanctions relief for one is sanctions relief for all. Sanctions evasion is like water: it finds the hole and the leak. Domestic energy policy is also intimately intertwined with our sanctions policy. Economic statecraft requires policymaking with a big-picture view, which may require us to restructure the way we make policy to avoid conflicting decisions made in silos.

Meanwhile, threats from the Middle East are exploiting America’s greatest national security vulnerability: an open border. Iran is already active in the Western Hemisphere, both through the activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Venezuela and through Hezbollah operations in the Tri-Border Area. Given Hezbollah’s close cooperation with the Mexican drug cartels and Border Patrol statistics showing Iranian nationals being stopped at the southern border, we must understand that the Iranian threat has penetrated the homeland as deeply as it has the United Kingdom and Canada (where officials in both countries acknowledge that IRGC networks are vibrant).

Recent cases of Middle Eastern citizens illegally crossing our border and attempting to gain access to military facilities should raise further alarms. With our law enforcement and intelligence officials warning of global jihadist radicalization, a resurgent Hamas network in the United States, and terrorist threats brewing in Afghanistan, we must prioritize Western Hemisphere policy and counterterrorism early in the new administration. The latter should include a full-scale push to end the Qatar-Turkey-Lebanon double-dealing, while soberly assessing the options available to defund al-Qaeda and ISIS-K.

Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and sponsorship of terrorism are strategic threats to the United States in their own right, of course. Tehran’s recent launch of 120 ballistic missiles against Israel within the broader context of an active intercontinental ballistic missile program and increased missile cooperation with Russia should redouble our resolve to stop Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold and to defend our eastern seaboard from future long-range threats. The idea of ​​making a deal with a regime that actively plans to assassinate former American officials and take other Americans hostage is irrational and offers both China and Russia a dangerous road map to follow.

We must also be honest that appeasement of Iran funds and fuels the fires in the Middle East that prevent us from focusing more on the Indo-Pacific. Every dollar we give Iran in the hope that it will not develop nuclear weapons subsidizes a terrorist organization that will attack American interests or those of our allies. Those who advocate greater burden-sharing among allies to address the Iranian threat cannot simultaneously advocate policies that put those allies in existential danger.

President Biden’s Iran policy, combined with a reopening of the financial taps for the UN Relief and Works Agency and other funding for Gaza, ultimately led to the October 7 carnage and the subsequent multi-front Iranian war. His decision to delist the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, withdraw air defenses from Saudi Arabia, and ignore direct strikes on Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Jeddah pushed the Gulf states into a homegrown Iran deal that emboldened Tehran and put the Israeli-Palestinian conflict front and center — a surefire way to halt regional integration.

A stronger Israel and an Israeli-allied Saudi Arabia working together to push back Iran (and its strategic partners) in the Middle East requires a U.S. posture that pressures Tehran rather than builds it up. That naturally leads to a renewed and enhanced maximum pressure campaign on Iran, which would deprive Tehran of much-needed resources and give our allies the leverage to go on the offensive again. Iran’s 2022-2023 national uprising, which exposed the regime’s fundamentally unstable nature, reminds us that a pressure campaign can also force Tehran to spend more time and money inside its borders than outside.

However, we cannot ignore Iran’s nuclear progress over the past three years. Moreover, we know that Iran will continue to use nuclear extortion to undermine America’s political will to exert pressure.

Furthermore, a new underground Iranian enrichment facility is likely to be completed in the next two years, complicating future U.S. and Israeli military options. With Israel facing war with Hezbollah and Iran moving toward the nuclear finish line, limited but effective U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear program will be necessary sooner rather than later. The status quo is a recipe for continued instability and distraction.

A strong renewed push on Iran and the rapid elimination of its most dangerous threat would give us the best chance to stabilize the Middle East and focus our attention on other key challenges: enabling allies to deepen their security cooperation and regional responsibilities, moving regional partners toward the United States and away from China, maintaining strategic leverage with China in a future conflict, and cutting off oxygen to Iran’s terrorist allies.

Richard Goldberg is a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He has served on Capitol Hill, on the U.S. National Security Council, as chief of staff to the governor of Illinois, and as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve. @rich_goldberg

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