Baltimore Ravens: Four Downs – Welcoming the Mafia

We wait all day for Sunday evening! The Baltimore Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills at home. Here are the four things you need to know. This is four remote areas and we’re going for it.

First, the Bills could be the Ravens’ toughest test yet

While it’s not easy going to Kansas City and taking on the defending champions who defeated you in the AFC Championship, you can make an argument that the Buffalo Bills are the Ravens’ toughest test. The Bills are undefeated and have won two straight games by total blowout. Last week they defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 47-10 in a first quarter game that got out of hand. They dominated the Miami Dolphins in the second Thursday game of the season, 31-10. While the Bills had a shootout with the Arizona Cardinals, they still scored 34 points and added a W to their record. If you’re not good at math, the Bills scored 112 points and allowed only 48 points.

Josh Allen is coming off a game with 263 yards and four touchdowns. He may be known for hero-balling and forcing some wild interceptions, but Allen hasn’t thrown one yet this season. Sean McDermott has never had a team known for running the ball, but James Cook has 188 yards, an average of 4.6 yards per attempt. The Bills built 360 rushing yards, a very respectable number. Honestly, the Bills don’t miss Stefon Diggs at all and have found their most balanced offense in years. This has to be at least somewhat alarming for a Ravens team that gives up an average of 26 points per game but averages 23.7 points itself.

The Bills defense is playing strong this season. They are plus-five in the turnover ratio. Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau each have three sacks, while five other players have their own. One thing to note is that the Cardinals had 124 rushing yards against the Bills in Week 1. Kyler Murray was responsible for 57 of these yards at the quarterback position. This is welcome information for Lamar Jackson, who may be able to achieve better results as a runner. Derrick Henry had just 151 yards against the Cowboys. The run game seems to be the key. This means the Ravens can’t get into a wild shootout with the Bills. They need to bring their game to the Bills and keep the running game relevant.

Second question: Can the Ravens frustrate and punish Josh Allen?

The Ravens are off to a strong start to the season when it comes to getting to the quarterback. Kyle Van Noy has four sacks. Odafe Oweh (who is under a lot of pressure) has 2.5 sacks and the team has collected ten in three games. Just like last season, the pass rush comes by committee. Pass rush could be another key in this game. Allen has a lot of confidence and believes he can throw the football through any window. Pressuring, hitting and rushing his decision-making could lead him to some of the mistakes he has been prone to throughout his career. Pass rush is a necessity, but can the Ravens get there?

The bad news for the Ravens is that the Bills’ offensive line has hardly been tested this season. Allen hasn’t been sacked since the season opener and the Bills gave up just two sacks in that game. Watching the game against the Jaguars, it almost seemed like Allen and company were playing against the air – the Jaguars defense barely played a role in the game. Allen has become one of the pros at the quarterback position because he can beat you before the snap and knows exactly what he wants to accomplish on every play.

The Ravens need to put him in the pocket. They have to hide their looks and give him just enough hesitation to let the pass rushers get there. The good news for the Ravens is that Zach Orr did a great job against the Cowboys, keeping Dak Prescott guessing and keeping linemen occupied with potential blitzers whether they rushed the quarterback or not. This allowed the Ravens to build a huge lead. The Ravens need to confuse Allen and set traps so he can throw interceptions. They need to restrain him and make him pay for holding the football too long. Prescott was a good preparation session for Allen. The Ravens need to see more of what they did in the first half against the Cowboys. The goodies for their game plan can be found there.

Third point: don’t be predictable, keep adding wrinkles

Todd Monken should get some credit for what he did last week. He used receivers (especially Zay Flowers) on the move to provide distracting window dressing to keep the defense on their heels. Monken also leaned on what worked and had Pat Ricard play about half the offensive snaps so he could support the run game (that was one of my keys for the Dallas game, which we saw come to fruition).

You saw the classic hesitation the Ravens can create on defense, with the mesh point between Jackson and the running backs becoming a factor again. You saw Charlie Kolar fake blocking and slipping wide open for a good yard. It was fun, inventive and fresh last week. The Ravens need to continue throwing wrinkles into this offense as they need to keep the opponent off balance. You always know when the Ravens are in trouble because you say to yourself, “Oh no, I’ve seen this movie before.” Monken and Jackson need to keep that out of our minds this week.

It’s important to run the ball when Justice Hill is in the game. The defense can’t assume he passed just because Henry is out of the game. The Ravens should be more balanced with their targets at the tight end position, as Mark Andrews should never be ignored. Still, it’s a good idea to use all three tight ends and Ricard at fullback throughout the game. It helps the offensive line, leans into their run game and lets them call plays tailored to Henry.

Fourth, do the little things

The Ravens gave us a scare last week just because they didn’t do the little things. Justin Tucker missed a field goal. The Ravens allowed onside kick recoveries and had several poorly timed penalties. It sounds obvious, but the little things are the key to winning this game.

The Ravens need to play their most disciplined game of the season. You can be mad at the referees as much as you want, but thirteen penalties for 105 yards is a problem. It was 11 penalties for 109 yards against the Raiders. That’s two weeks in a row where the Ravens had double-digit penalties. The officials may have been bad this season, but when you have such a serious problem, chances are the team is part of the problem. If you came from the future and told me that the Ravens could have beaten the Bills if they had just made a few fewer stupid mistakes or committed a few fewer penalties, I’d say that sounds about right.

John Harbaugh did better in the Dallas game. It’s hard to notice when you’re close to giving up on a crazy comeback. Let’s be honest: the onside kick was crazy and he’s not the one who missed the field goal. Harbaugh’s main job is to not be the problem and have the team ready. The bottom line is that the bills are too good. You can’t try to get away with the little mistakes that have plagued the Ravens this season.