Five Questions With Baltimore Beatdown Before Bills At Ravens For ‘SNF’

While we wait for what should be a great matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens for this week’s edition of Sunday Night Football, there’s time to catch up on SB Nation’s Ravens blog. This week, Kyle Phoenix – Ravens beat reporter and Editor-in-Chief at Baltimore Beatdown – took some time to talk about the playoff-like atmosphere that awaits Bills-Ravens tonight.

Phoenix and I discussed everything from thoughts on the Ravens’ 1-2 start to how quarterback Lamar Jackson’s play continues to evolve. Plus, we discussed what Buffalo might find as an exploitable weakness for Baltimore on both sides of the ball, what’s behind the Ravens’ run game, and whether Baltimore is equipped to adapt and stop the Bills regardless of the cards they receive.

You can also watch Phoenix’s pre-game chat with John Boccacino on the latest edition of the Billieve podcast:

Without further delay, I will be turning things over to Kyle Phoenix…

1. How concerning (or perhaps important) is the Ravens’ 1-2 start?

It’s certainly concerning. The first part of their schedule is a gauntlet and the “easiest” game on their schedule, the Las Vegas Raiders, went up in flames in the fourth quarter. It didn’t help that it was a valuable conference game. At 1-2, they fell behind other teams, such as the Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. They needed wins over these teams along with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5 to earn head-to-head tiebreakers and conference wins when the playoff seeding comes down to the final few weeks.

The problem is the optics. If we were 2-1 with a win over the Raiders, it would have looked so normal. A close loss to KC and wins over the Raiders and Cowboys look like they’re solid in Week 4. But instead they look downtrodden at 1-2.

I think it’s a bit exaggerated, but there are valid criticisms. And more importantly: how the team will get through the coming weeks, namely Sunday evening.

2. The Bills have defended Lamar Jackson well in the past, containing him and forcing him to look outside the bounds for completions. What will change Jackson’s chances for the better this weekend?

Think the weapons the Ravens have fit well with the weaknesses of the Bills defense. The Bills have a few players behind them where the Ravens are strongest: tight end. The duo of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely is strong. While Andrews (and many other notable tight ends) haven’t hit their stride yet, it feels imminent. This, combined with Derrick Henry’s breakout last week with an offensive line generating tremendous momentum, showed the Ravens where they can be successful.

I think the Ravens offense will match up well with the Bills defense. Where the Bills defense is strongest, the secondary, is not where the Ravens make their offensive move. They don’t run their wide receivers against the other team’s secondary players. Instead, they balance their running game with shorter throws and attack the middle. The previous teams the Bills have faced have gone against the proverbial teeth of the Bills defense. The Ravens are significantly different than much of the NFL, but especially the Cardinals, Dolphins and Jaguars.

3. If you were planning on stopping this Baltimore Ravens team, what stands out as one or more exploitable areas/situations on each side of the ball?

Offensive: offensive line

The Ravens replaced three starters from last year and it didn’t do much for them. In Week 1, Chiefs pass rusher Chris Jones was a threat. Raiders’ edge rusher Maxx Crosby won AFC Defensive Player of the Week in Week 2 after blasting the Ravens’ O-line. I expect the Bills will see how they can get after Jackson, keep the Ravens from getting ahead and limit their rushes, forcing Jackson into real passing downs and getting off the field.

Defensive: Inside linebackers in coverage

It’s been a bit of a slog for the Ravens’ linebacker duo this season. Roquan Smith has given up 11 of 15 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown. First-year starter (second-year NFL pro) Trenton Simpson has allowed 11 of 13 targets for 96 yards. Overall the coverage has been challenging against good tight ends and I think Dalton Kincaid can win these games. Although I imagine the Ravens are hoping to stifle Kincaid with safety Kyle Hamilton.

The survival of the Ravens is another area. They struggle to close out games. The Bills know this because the Ravens led 20-3 at halftime in 2022, only to outscore them 23-20. They have also relinquished the lead in the past few games. Unless the Ravens exorcise those demons, the Bills will keep the door open long enough when they get behind the Ravens in the fourth quarter. Or slam the door on the Ravens if they get ahead first.

4. On the run game, in two parts: What was the biggest key to Baltimore’s best yards per offensive play, as well as the team’s top-rated run defense — and why it hasn’t led to a better record in September led?

The Ravens’ rushing numbers feel a bit inflated as they went against the porous Cowboys’ defensive line and hammered them repeatedly. But they’re starting to settle down and figure out where best to rush and combine the talents of Jackson and Henry. In Week 1, it was a challenge against the Chiefs front. But over the last two games they have resolved and expanded on how best to get involved.

Defensively, the Ravens have a knack for stifling rushing attacks. Their defensive line features good defenders, from Michael Pierce, Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones to their depth in Broderick Washington and Brent Urban. They have linebackers who pride themselves on reaching gaps, clogging lanes or tackling ball carriers.

The reason they don’t have a better record has to do with the fact that they are the NFL’s worst pass defense. They’ve given up 875 passing yards in three games, and it wasn’t because Patrick Mahomes gave them up for more than 300 yards. It wasn’t because Gardner Minshew or Dak Prescott did either. It’s because the Ravens get leads, forcing teams to become one-dimensional and then struggle to get off the field in the second half of games.

5. The bills have kept teams off balance at the start of the season, with taking away perceived strengths simply strengthening other areas. So far, making Buffalo one-dimensional doesn’t seem helpful. Are the Ravens equipped to stop the Bills no matter what cards they’re dealt, and how do you see everything playing out considering injuries?

The Ravens – at their best – can get along with anyone. Like the Bills, these two teams simply have the talent and coaching to hit, get hit and hit back.

While I agree that the bills have overcome the teams that tried to make them one-dimensional by outperforming the avenues through which defenses try to put them, I still think it’s a bad idea to put the bills on their terms to welcome. By doing this you give them the ability to run, pass, use play action and Allen is at his most dangerous. Negating their successful run game could limit the play-calling weapons of Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Then it’s about pitting your best against their best and seeing who comes out on top. Because if you don’t try to limit Brady’s play sheet and Allen’s access to all play calls, you’re going to run into them. Trying to run the Bills’ offense at full throttle with everything Brady has at his disposal is a fool’s errand, regardless of your talent level.

I hate predictions, but I say this feels like a game the Ravens can win, and I think they do. While they are at their best offensively, the Bills are not at their strengths defensively. I think the Ravens have the edge in more areas than the Bills.

But to act or speak like that is a done deal for Baltimore and it’s downright stupid to believe. The Bills are Super Bowl contenders. The Ravens need to prove themselves as one. But at home in prime time, with a mostly healthy roster, I think the oddsmakers are right to make the Ravens slight favorites.

My thanks to Kyle Phoenix for his time and what a great conversation this week was. Be sure to check out Kyle’s additional work with Baltimore Beatdown, including my side of the Bills-focused conversation leading up to Sunday night football.