The 2024 Buffalo Bills are built for the long haul of the NFL season

We’re now three weeks into the season and the Buffalo Bills have already turned a “retooling year” into a Super Bowl expectation once again. Bills Mafia has been here before; Just last year, Buffalo crushed Miami 48-20 a week after the Dolphins put up 70 points, and it felt like we were all-systems-go before injuries and some brutal losses compounded – forcing the team to claw their way back in Week 2008 jobs to the postseason. 18.

The Bills haven’t lost more than six points in an NFL-record 44 straight games. It is a team that is used to winning dominantly, especially in September. Buffalo has a +217 point differential in September with a 9-3 record and an average margin of victory of 25.8.

This kind of hot start has become a trend, so it can be difficult to be overly excited, but the diversity of talent on the Bills’ current roster and the way the team is winning (especially in attack) points to a path to seasonal success.

Everyone eats, but no one has to feast

If I asked you who will lead the Bills in a snap this season at wide receiver, what would you guess? If you said Mack Hollins, you’re right! Coming into training camp, that fact would sound ridiculous and even disastrous because it would be assumed that something happened to Shakir or Coleman.

Instead, the Bills have found a new type of player who fits their identity and plays for his teammates above all else. The story surrounding Stefon Diggs is exaggerated, but Buffalo’s offense suffered from tunnel vision between Diggs and Gabe Davis. They’re two guys who should always be on the field and whose limitations as receivers were easier to spot by opposing defenses.

This season, wide receiver Khalil Shakir leads Buffalo with a 19.5% target share (39th highest in the NFL), while Stefon Diggs saw a 29.5% target share last year (ninth highest). The “everybody eats” mantra works because no player outside of the quarterback is expected to be dominant on every play, series or game. It is a common garden of transgression that allows the flower with the most separation to bloom.

In some ways, the defense is experiencing a similar communal renaissance with the departures of safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, plus Tre’Davious White. Some of that is due to the age and wear and tear of those three, but there is also now less pressure to keep underperforming players on the field because of their names. As a result, the defense has been able to utilize variety in coverage with a younger, more athletic group in the secondary.

The resurgence of edge rusher Von Miller has also given the front four more depth than last season and as a result, the Bills haven’t used Cover-0 blitzes once this season. Instead, they prefer to have fun with opposing quarterbacks with a lockdown coverage game.

That way, everyone “eats” on defense because everyone can operate with the path of least resistance and the player who is rewarded for a particular play does his job and is not asked to be extraordinary.

Keep it simple stupid

In 2023, the Bills were very fond of keeping the same guys on the field for every situation. According to research, Gabe Davis was a run blocker on 72% of all running plays Pro football focus. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman, who leads the receiver room in run-blocking snaps (47), is participating in only 53.5% of rushes.

The Bills are opting to play with two tight ends on the field about 60% of the time, compared to a 40% clip last season, going from the fifth-lowest percentage to the 10th-highest. To me, that’s simple football, using your bigger players as blockers instead of smaller receivers.

Last week I highlighted offensive coordinator Joe Brady and his use of motions and other personnel during the first two weeks. This week I want to expand on those thoughts.

The most successful offenses in the modern NFL are those that use motion effectively. The Miami Dolphins did this by jump-starting their track stars and the Kansas City Chiefs did this to misdirect the defense of their usually elite weapons. Right now, Buffalo is using it for Josh Allen in a way that allows him to make decisions easily and quickly, or allows his off-script play to shine.

Four of the five touchdowns scored last Monday featured a moving receiver, and the only touchdown that did not was a play-action pass to Keon Coleman. To me, that’s a clear and purposeful way for the Bills to create space for their biggest/most important plays.

Below: Ben Solak van ESPN shows how Buffalo’s pre-snap move throws off the Jacksonville Jaguars defender on 4th-and-3, making it a painless conversion, versus how the Bills were able to remove the same concept from the Jacksonville offense as they stagnated.

Plan + talent equals wins

The simplicity of movements in attack can do a lot for any team, but you still need players talented enough to exploit mismatches, understand their assignments correctly and make plays when something goes wrong. Fortunately, the Bills have the king of football in Josh Allen’s backyard and can rely on his elite play to make up for poor blocks and tight coverage.

Let’s go through a few plays and identify where life is made easier by the scheme, and where Josh Allen has been able to fill the gaps.

Easy to read

Play 1

This was the very first action of last Monday’s match. Running back James Cook gestured to the near side of the field and identified the linebacker’s coverage. Mack Hollins knew all he had to do was get in the way of the linebacker covering Cook and the space was created.

This also shows great coaching and awareness as Hollins did not go further than five yards upfield to avoid illegal contact and threw his hands up to ensure he did not come into contact with the defender as the ball was in the air was. A very easy read for Josh Allen and a nice 19 yard gain.

Play 2

Here’s another motion that was similar to the 4th and 3rd conversions I linked earlier. Buffalo had two tight ends on the left side of the line and Shakir’s initial movement caused the defense to pivot to that side, waiting for a run or a jet pass to the left. Instead, when Shakir lunged to his right, his assigned defender was caught flat-footed and all he needed was a one-on-one block from Hollins to hunt for a first down. A slightly better block and it could have been a touchdown.

We have Josh Allen and you don’t

Play 1

Once again, tight end Dalton Kincaid’s movement shows man coverage being played and his out route mixed with wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling going vertical to the left and running back Ty Johnson one-on-one with a linebacker.

Josh Allen wasn’t looking away from Johnson the entire time, showing that the play design was made for him, but when he got an even closer look at the ball, Josh Allen released the ball before Johnson even turned around, leaving it in a perfect spot fall away from the ball. defender and completely in step.

Play 2

This was 3rd and 11, and the defense knew Josh Allen’s legs are a weapon, but they were probably hoping to keep all the routes under them. Samuel’s move pulled the nickel corner wide and Allen was quick enough to make them pay.

This was the second quarterback draw of the game, but the first had no movement, so a simple change caught the defense off guard. It’s also nice to have a quarterback who runs like Eric Dickerson and Earl Campbell.

Defining a new era

To compliment the Buffalo Bills bogeyman, part of what made the New England Patriots and now the Kansas City Chiefs perennial contenders was and is the ability to adapt rather than impose a schematic philosophy. Quarterback Tom Brady had reliable-but-not-great receivers for much of his later career. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes had tight end Travis Kelce, but won two championships without wide receiver Tyreek Hill.

The Bills had their star in Stefon Diggs, but his abilities were never as game-changing as Hill or wide receiver Randy Moss – so forcing targets seems to make the offense a little easier to plan for, especially on critical downs. The top-heavy talent the Bills have thrived with over the past four seasons has become a deeper core of players ready to perfect a role. With the injuries on defense already this season, we can see that it has been easier to replace production than in previous years.

The next three weeks will test their limits, but Buffalo has shown that they will let opponents play at their pace and prioritize exploiting the other team’s weaknesses rather than beating them with their strengths.