Best Bets for Bills-Ravens and ‘Sunday Night Football’

Monday night football saw our best bets go 2/4 last week with the burns coming out of wide receivers: a dud of a night by Gabe Davis, and my big interest in Curtis Samuel. The Buffalo Bills were able to put another game away very early, but the offense didn’t stop trying until late in the third quarter.

Bills Mafia should expect a much closer game against the Baltimore Ravens tonight, with Baltimore against the wall and Buffalo heading into another short week road game. Let’s take a look at five ways to capitalize on another Bills primetime clash. All figures and suggestions come via the odds at FanDuel.

Please note that, as always, no spread or over/under picks are included.

James Cook over 54.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Bills have introduced an offense that is willingly balanced and content with what the defense gives them. Week 4 should be no different. The Ravens have had two collapses this season and a big reason for that is due to their bottom 10 rankings in both pressure percentage and blitz percentage.

Baltimore has a defense in the top five in rushing EPA, but that is largely blown up by going against a Las Vegas Raiders team that is by far the worst rushing attack in the league. Additionally, the Ravens have faced the fewest rushing attempts in the league. As long as the play script remains neutral, running back James Cook should see enough carries to clear this line.

Mark Andrews over 29.5 receiving yards (-110)

I like to back good players on downtrends at their lows and tight ends. Mark Andrews certainly achieved that last week in terms of reception. A zero-catch game against the Dallas Cowboys and the emergence of Isaiah Likely in Week 1 pushed this number too low.

Andrews has run 42 of 56 routes from the slot and Buffalo ranks just 11th in EPA allowed from the slot – their worst ranking compared to any WR alignment. The Bills have a bottom-five defense that is also blown up by big leads early in games, so I expect Andrews will be used to keep the Bills off balance. This number could be achieved in just two catches.

Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (+150)

We are more than three weeks removed from the time Allen injured his left hand on a touchdown jump over Arizona Cardinals safety Buddha Baker. That was a “gotta have it” situation, and I expect several “gotta have it” moments in this game where Allen lets his adrenaline get the better of him and looks like he wants to punch it into himself. It’s hard to get this number with positive odds, so hop on it while it lasts.

Lamar Jackson under 58.5 rushing yards (-110)

Quarterback Kyler Murray was able to destroy this Bills defense for 57 yards in Week 1. With all due respect to Lamar Jackson, that was more out of concern for the Cardinals’ passing attack. Buffalo knows what Jackson can do, and I imagine the Bills will keep an eye on him all game and make sure running back Derrick Henry slowly moves the Ravens up the field. Forcing Baltimore into designed Lamar runs would be a win for Buffalo, as their linebackers pose a bigger risk in the passing game.

Longshot of the Week: Mack Hollins Anytime TD Scorer (+700)

Wide receiver Mack Hollins has logged the second-most routes for Buffalo this season, but he has the team’s lowest number of targets (6). This is a bet on volume, as you rarely get as many seven-to-one odds for someone on the field as Hollins. He already had a touchdown in Week 1 and that number has been around +500 the last two games, so we’re at a good buy low.

Parlay if you may with odds of +9471

Good luck and have fun. Let me know your top picks on Twitter @Anzalone_Cam