Fentanyl supply, potency decreases, but experts remain cautious –

The fentanyl supply chain is drying up as law enforcement efforts have increased, reducing overdose deaths.

For more than a decade, fentanyl has wreaked havoc on communities across the United States, largely due to its low cost, high potency, and ease of production. It has primarily contributed to the ongoing opioid crisis, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives and left many people using the drug without realizing it and facing deadly consequences.

However, in recent months there has been a surprising shift in the supply of fentanyl making its way into the U.S., leading to what some experts say is a significant decline in the availability and potency of the deadly synthetic opioid. Researchers have noticed that the supply on the streets appears to be shrinking, while at the same time prices are rising and the potency of the drug is decreasing. This trend has been observed in several regions, from Ohio to West Virginia, Maryland and Arizona, and the combination of the three factors essentially eliminates the main reasons why the drug became so popular in the first place.

While skepticism remains, a growing body of evidence points to a noticeable shortage of fentanyl on the illicit market, which could explain the recent decline in overdose deaths in many parts of the country. Some experts attribute this development to a combination of international and domestic factors. Internationally, pressure has increased on the Mexican drug cartels responsible for producing and smuggling fentanyl into the US, as well as on the Chinese suppliers who have been the precursor chemicals needed to produce the drug. Law enforcement efforts have also significantly increased, resulting in a dramatic increase in fentanyl seizures at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to administration officials. Nearly 70,000 pounds of fentanyl was seized in the two years between August 2022 and August 2024 alone.

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In addition to an increase in the amount seized before it reaches the market, there has been increased cooperation between the U.S. and Mexican governments, as well as diplomatic efforts aimed at curbing the supply of precursor chemicals from China. These efforts appear to have had a tangible impact, with some experts suggesting that drug cartels may be deliberately reducing the potency of the fentanyl they distribute in an effort to take the heat from law enforcement.

One of the most puzzling aspects of this fentanyl shortage is the introduction of a chemical known as BTMPS into the drug supply. This industrial substance, used in the production of plastics, has been found in fentanyl samples nationwide, even though it does not provide any psychoactive effects and does not appear to contribute to the high that fentanyl users seek. This has baffled experts, who believe its widespread use suggests it is being added deliberately, possibly as a means to dilute the fentanyl and expand the supply.

While the reduced supply and lower potencies make it seem like things are moving in the right direction, there are still concerns that the decline in fentanyl availability could drive some users to engage in riskier behavior, such as injecting the drug instead of smoking it, which could lead to riskier behavior. increase the number of overdoses. Additionally, the variability in the strength of street fentanyl could pose problems for users trying to control their doses, putting them at greater risk for an accidental overdose.

Nevertheless, the decline in fentanyl-related deaths is undeniable. In 2023, overdose deaths involving fentanyl fell by 20%, and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reported that this trend accelerated in 2024. Public health data from states like Ohio shows an even steeper decline in fatal overdoses, with some regions seeing declines. of a maximum of one third. Harm reduction advocates and public health officials have also noted an increase in the use of addiction treatments, such as long-acting buprenorphine, which may be helping to reduce overdose deaths.

Of course, the opioid epidemic remains a critical public health problem, and the drug supply on the streets remains unpredictable and dangerous. Substances like xylazine, a powerful sedative, are still mixed into fentanyl, which continues to pose serious risks to users. Thus, despite the noticeable decline in fentanyl, it is still important for law enforcement agencies and others to continue their efforts to combat the crisis.

Fentanyl’s pipeline to the US may be drying up

Drug deaths are finally declining. No one really knows why.

DEA: National Drug Threat Assessment 2024