Friday Reading List – October 4, 2024

Good morning and Merry Christmas in October to those in Venezuela.

Programming note: I’ll be there next Thursday, October 10 participate in a paid webinar with Good Judgment Inc where I will discuss my US election forecast and methodology along with others in the superforecasting group. My current prediction (which differs from many others in the group, as well as from 538, Nate Silver, betting markets, etc): 75% likely the Democrats will win the presidency, 85% likely they will win the House of Representatives , but only about 35% likely to hold the Senate.

This week’s newsletter gave a preview of the upcoming elections in Ecuador.

My column in the World Politics Review detailed the details attempts to arrest Nicolas Maduro and some of the possible consequences.

Magazine for Democracy – How organized crime threatens Latin America

Quarterly America – The past, present and future of soy in South America

Brookings How do the United States and China intersect in Latin America?

Economist – Why is football in Latin America so complex?

San Antonio Express News – Mexico’s first female president wants foreign investment. She will first have to curb cartels.

Bloomberg Mexico’s first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is taking a post-AMLO course

Bloomberg Mexican leader’s bold clean energy plan dismissed as ‘Pipe Dream’

El Financiero – Lo que le espera a Sheinbaum… This is one of the international conflicts that AMLO knows

AP – The Mexican president praises austerity when he leaves office, but is generous with his friends

NYT As Mexico’s president steps down, some are praising his legacy, but others are fearing it

NYT America’s drug mules are smuggling fentanyl into the US

Reuters – How fentanyl traffickers are exploiting a US trade law

AP – Six migrants from Egypt, Peru and Honduras die near Guatemalan border after Mexican soldiers open fire

NYT Brazil’s largest mafia is entering politics. The government must act.

Economist – Jair Bolsonaro still forms Brazil’s right wing

Bloomberg Gang violence is moving into the fast-growing cities of the Amazon

AP – Dramatic images show the toll of drought on the Amazon and its rivers

CNN Drought in Brazil: Grim photos show dramatic shrinkage of major Amazon rivers

Foreign Affairs – How to get the Colombian peace process back on track

Guard – From pristine forest to prison fortress: why Ecuador sacrifices vulnerable ecosystems to build prisons

Economist – Peruvians debate how to protect isolated tribes

Bloomberg Javier Milei wants Argentinians to dollarize the economy for him

Bloomberg Europe’s global green ambitions are once again going too fast (particularly relevant to Central America)

Bloomberg Guatemala President Bernardo Arevalo says ‘corrupt coalition’ plans to make a comeback

AP – Guatemala’s closely watched selection of the new Supreme Court remains flawed, critics say

CFR – 6 highlights from our conversation with Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo

Tico times – Costa Rican President Chaves is considering resigning ahead of the 2026 alternate election

Bloomberg Panama’s Finance Minister Chapman sees the export of the first quantum copper as feasible

Atlantic Council – Accelerating business confidence in northern Central America: A roadmap for Guatemala

Reuters – Haitian anti-graft investigators accuse top officials of corruption

The Hill – An American Marshall Plan for Haiti

Miami Herald – Miami companies have halted shipping in Haiti as gangs attack the main port and disrupt cargo

NYT US raises new concerns about Chinese lending practices

Guard – How oligarchs took on the British fraud squad – and won (It’s a few weeks old but I just got around to reading it and it’s excellent)

Bloomberg American chips guide Russian missiles that kill Ukrainians

Gallup – Global Security Research Center

Have a nice weekend!