Rising Crime: Undermining Safety, Creating Chaos, and Harming Cities’ Tax Bases – Why Is It So Political?

Crime has become a political football, kicked back and forth across the electoral playing field. The public receives conflicting stories about crime. One side claims that crime is increasing, while the other claims that crime is decreasing – and that any belief to the contrary is driven by perception rather than reality.

“People will use crime data to say what they want,” says Jeff Asher, criminologist and co-founder of AH Datalytics. “If you don’t have the certainty that almost all agencies can report data, it means you need a lot of literacy to be able to combat things that are being said in bad faith.”

In 2014, California passed Prop. 47 good, with a list of misdemeanor crimes reclassified as misdemeanors. The idea was that defendants would still be held accountable, but with felonies instead of misdemeanors they would have an easier time finding jobs.

However, in some California cities, prosecutors announced they would no longer prosecute thefts under $950. In these jurisdictions, theft was no longer a misdemeanor or misdemeanor; from a practical point of view, theft was decriminalized. Professional criminals, gangs and organized crime groups took it as a green light and regularly commit shoplifting of more than $25,000 per store per day. Stores started closing because they couldn’t withstand shoplifting at that level.

This past year, the Oakland chapter of the NAACP demanded that local officials declare a crime emergency. This demand, which was initially criticized as reflective of Republican talking points, was later endorsed by the regional NAACP.

The impact of Prop. 47 continues to have a devastating impact on urban centres. Last year, federal government agencies at the Nancy Pelosi Federal Building in San Francisco advised employees to start working from home because it was no longer considered “safe” to travel to the office. Commercial real estate values ​​quickly plummeted, with buildings selling for 30-50% of their value just two years earlier.

The fate of our cities is not limited to California. In Minneapolis, two office buildings that sold for $73.7 million in 2019 recently sold for just $6.5 million — a sales price that represents less than 10% of the buildings’ original value. The default rate for commercial mortgage-backed collateral loans rose to 41.6% in June, up from just 5.7% a year earlier, according to data from real estate analytics firm Trepp.

The common thread is rising crime. Public safety is the cornerstone of any society. If cities fail to ensure safety, crime will increase. If crime increases, businesses will close. As businesses close, commercial real estate values ​​plummet, default rates rise and tax revenues collapse.

Politically, the two major parties are at odds over crime. One side emphasizes that crime is increasing and cites various statistics from urban areas. The other side disputes this, pointing to recent FBI data that states crime is actually declining.

The FBI reported that violent crime in the US fell to near pre-pandemic levels in 2022. The FBI also claims that violent crime rates have fallen from about 377 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2022 to about 364 per 100,000 people in 2023. Assistant Director Brian Griffith notes in his report that while violent crime rates are slightly higher than in 2019, the general trend shows a decrease.

The gap between these two arguments could not be greater. Reconciling these arguments is challenging and requires careful examination of incomplete statistics and regional disparities – and of the political motivations at the heart of the matter.

Part of the problem stems from a transition in the FBI’s data collection. A few years ago, the FBI phased out its nearly century-old system and began relying on the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). In the first year after the change, the FBI did not have enough information in certain regions to produce meaningful results. The new system required expensive upgrades, which led to discrepancies. Some major police departments, including Miami-Dade, will resume reporting data to the FBI in 2022. But the nation’s two largest police departments — New York and Los Angeles — are still missing from federal data. The FBI has acknowledged that not all law enforcement agencies in the US are participating in its new crime reporting program.

It is important to note that there are other federal agencies that track crime. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports a nearly 20% increase in homicides from 2019 to 2023, a significant contrast to FBI figures. This discrepancy has led organizations like the Coalition for Law, Order, and Safety (CLOS) to determine that actual crime rates may be higher than what the FBI statistics reflect. CLOS argued that the FBI’s inconsistent data collection system creates challenges for law enforcement and hinders an accurate understanding of crime.

The Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey paints a very different picture of crime, showing a 37% increase in violent crime between 2020 and last year. Specific crimes also saw a significant increase:

• Rape increased by 42%
• Robbery by 63%
• Attack by 34%
• Violent crime (excluding simple assault) by 55%
• Domestic violence by 32%
• Violence by strangers at 61%
• Violent crime involving a weapon, at 56%
• Motor vehicle theft up 42%

Data is obtained annually from a nationally representative sample of approximately 240,000 people in approximately 150,000 households. Respondents report crimes they have experienced in the past six months.

FBI data may also be skewed by prosecutorial decisions in certain urban areas. Many prosecutors elected through reform platforms have chosen not to prosecute a range of crimes, impacting arrest rates. For example, following widespread protests at universities earlier this year over the Israel-Hamas dispute, many arrested individuals had their charges dropped by prosecutors unwilling to prosecute the cases. When certain crimes are no longer prosecuted, local police may stop making arrests for those crimes, which in turn affects crime statistics. In Houston, a news conference proudly announced a drop in crime, but it was later revealed that more than 260,000 businesses had been administratively closed due to staff shortages.

The denial that crime is increasing could itself be a political strategy in defense of the poor bail and criminal justice reforms implemented in some states. In New York, for example, lawmakers have already rolled back problematic bail reform measures three times. If they were to admit that crime is still increasing, public outrage could become even greater.

Ultimately, crime politics has a limited shelf life. The public demands safety and the political crime football can only be kicked around for so long before there is a backlash. When one party cites incomplete data to claim that crime rates are falling, despite experts warning that the report may not reflect the full reality, the public has every reason to lose confidence. Especially when other data contradicts the FBI’s findings, people may choose to trust what they see firsthand. As they watch businesses close, commercial properties sell for a fraction of their value, and loan defaults rise, citizens can draw their own conclusions about crime based on what’s happening in their own communities.