Hugs or bullets? Sheinbaum begins to define its security strategy

In the first 100 days of the new federal government, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s security strategy will focus on combating violence in Mexico’s 10 deadliest cities, according to a plan seen by media.

Sheinbaum, who was sworn in as Mexico’s first female president last Tuesday, said last week she would present the government’s National Security Plan on Tuesday.

Ahead of that presentation, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Mexican news website Animal Político separately reported on the government’s security plan for the first 100 days of its term, a period ending January 8, 2025.

Animal Político reported that the main “emerging strategy” to be implemented by the federal government will focus on reducing crime and violence in the 10 municipalities with the highest homicide rates in the country.

According to official data, those municipalities are the city of Colima, Tijuana, Acapulco, Celaya, Cajeme, Ciudad Juárez, Tlajomulco de Zúñiga, León and Benito Juárez (Cancún). A quarter of all murders in Mexico linked to organized crime occur in those cities, where the government is “pushing to reduce killings,” according to the WSJ.

The new safety strategy will first be rolled out in six cities in five states: Tijuana (Baja California); León and Celaya (Guanajuato); Acapulco (Guerrero); Benito Juarez (Quintana Roo); and Colima City (Colima).

The Wall Street Journal, which saw a “presentation” outlining the federal government’s security strategy, said Sheinbaum is “using her first 100 days in office to try to reduce homicide rates and loosen the grip of organized crime groups that control parts of the country. extorting companies, smuggling drugs and killing with impunity.”

The Journal also reported that the new president is “planning new efforts to combat the trafficking of the deadly drug fentanyl.”

Drug cartels in Mexico manufacture fentanyl with precursor chemicals sourced from China before shipping large quantities of the powerful synthetic opioid to the United States, where tens of thousands of people die from drug overdoses every year.

Sheinbaum revealed last week that fighting crime in Mexico’s most violent cities would be a priority, saying her government was “developing a program for the municipalities that currently have the highest number of homicides.”

She has also said federal and state prosecutors and security forces will increase their coordination in Mexico’s most violent areas.

John Creamer, a former senior U.S. diplomat in Mexico, told the WSJ that “the identification of ten priority municipalities is very good.”

However, it remains to be seen whether the government will provide sufficient funding and security personnel for the task of reducing violence in those municipalities, he said.

The government’s security strategy will be led by Security Minister Omar García Harfuch, who served as Mexico City’s security minister while Sheinbaum was mayor of the capital.

According to official data, the number of murders has almost halved during Sheinbaum’s mayoralty.

The president inherits a complicated security situation

The murder rate fell in the second half of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s six-year term as president, but remains very high. According to data published in August by national statistics agency INEGI, there were 31,062 homicides in 2023, a drop of 6.7% compared to the previous year.

Mexico’s five most violent states in 2023 in terms of total homicides were Guanajuato, State of Mexico, Baja California, Chihuahua and Michoacán. The sixth most violent state last year was Guerrero, where the mayor of the capital Chilpancingo was assassinated on Sunday, just six days after he was sworn in.

The WSJ said Sheinbaum’s security plan includes a focus on Guanajuato, “which has the highest organized crime homicide rate of any Mexican state.”

“Located in central Mexico, the state is a battleground for the lucrative black market fuel controlled by the Jalisco Cartel, one of Mexico’s most powerful organized crime groups, and the local Santa Rosa de Lima gang,” the statement said. Journal.

Sheinbaum also faces precarious security situations in other states, including Sinaloa, where the war between the Sinaloa Cartel’s “Los Chapitos” and “Los Mayos” factions has intensified in recent weeks, and Chiapas, where the Sinaloa Cartel is fighting the Jalisco New Generation Cartel in the border region of the southern state.

Animal Político, which reported on a document titled “Security Strategy for the First 100 Days,” and the WSJ said Chiapas is also a focus of the government plan.

In the state, where six migrants were killed by the Mexican army on the day Sheinbaum was sworn in, the new government plans to “carry out operational tasks” and implement programs “aimed at addressing the causes (of crime)” . said.

The WSJ said that “another city catching the attention of the new government is Culiacán,” the capital of Sinaloa.

However, the Journal did not provide details on specific security plans for the city where the fighting between the rival factions of the Sinaloa cartel took place.

In Michoacán, “Sheinbaum’s plan calls on the government to end extortion in the lime industry,” the newspaper said, noting that “a dozen gangs are preying on growers, packers and distributors.”

Animal Político said the government’s efforts in the state will focus on the municipalities of Nueva Italia, Antúnez, Buenavista, Tepalcatepec, Aguililla and Apatzingán.

‘Intensive’ use of intelligence key to security plan

The WSJ reported that Sheinbaum’s security strategy “calls for intensive use of intelligence to assess the structure of criminal groups, and find ways to use police intelligence to bring cases to justice.”

For its part, Animal Político said the new administration will aim to “strengthen the intelligence work of the country’s main intelligence institutions.”

There will be an ‘alternative’ security cabinet

Animal Político also reported that the federal government will create an “alternative” security cabinet composed of officials from the Treasury Department’s Financial Intelligence Unit, the Federal Tax Prosecutor’s Office, state oil company Pemex, federal tax agency SAT and other government agencies. aimed at combating illegal crime financing and money laundering.

The government’s main security cabinet consists of the president, the minister of security, the minister of the interior and other officials. It meets daily at 6 a.m. to assess the prevailing security situation throughout Mexico and determine what specific strategies and resources are needed to resolve the problems.

Animal Político said the government will also have a specific security strategy for the country’s highways, where truck robberies and hijackings are a major problem.

The WSJ said Sheinbaum’s security plan “envisions an expanded role for the federal government, with the National Security Cabinet vetting state security chiefs appointed by governors.”

“The federal government would also set national standards for Mexico’s 32 state police forces, prosecutors and prison systems,” the Journal said.

Will Sheinbaum’s security strategy be a success?

While the answer to that question will not be immediate, history suggests that significantly limiting violence will not be an easy task.

López Obrador’s six-year term was the most violent ever in terms of homicides, with nearly 200,000 murders.

Murders in Mexico increased sharply after former President Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) launched a militarized war against drug cartels. They continued to rise during Enrique Peña Nieto’s six-year term (2012-2018).

The WSJ reported that “every Mexican president has made targeting the country’s transnational criminal organizations a priority for decades, but these gangs have proven resilient to efforts to drive them out of the lucrative drug trafficking business amid endemic corruption.”

“…Conservative President Felipe Calderón declared war on the cartels, ushering in a period of violent conflict between gangs and government forces, while Sheinbaum’s mentor, former nationalist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, tried a softer approach called ‘hugs, no bullets.’ Neither worked,” the newspaper said.

Sheinbaum, who served as mayor of Mexico City from late 2018 to mid-2023, is committed to continuing López Obrador’s strategy, which favored tackling the root causes of crime through welfare and social programs of the government above fighting criminals with violence.

The new president and García Harfuch hope they can repeat the success they had in the capital, where the number of murders fell from 1,469 in 2018 to 747 in 2022, a drop of 49%.

García, the WSJ reported, “worked closely with U.S. law enforcement agencies and promoted intelligence gathering, police training and salaries” during his tenure as Mexico City’s security minister.

“US officials say they expect security cooperation to increase under Sheinbaum’s presidency,” the paper added.

Although López Obrador has made combating impunity a priority of his administration, the vast majority of serious crimes committed in Mexico, including murders, still go unpunished.

Reducing impunity will be another major challenge for Sheinbaum, who will serve a six-year term ending in 2030.

With reports from The Wall Street Journal and Animal Político