The dangerous radical at our southern border

Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as president of Mexico on Tuesday. Her ceremony was full of the pomp and circumstance expected of the ceremony Gobierno de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. Her Toma de Protesta (official speech) was delivered with a gentle, cool air – in stark contrast to the flair and bombast of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). But substantively, the event has strengthened AMLO’s legacy in Mexican history. Sheinbaum paid respectful tribute to AMLO and praised his personal and political achievements:

You (AMLO) have repeatedly asked us not to unveil busts or put your name on streets, avenues or neighborhoods; nor monuments or great tributes. The truth is that there is no need, because you will always be where only those who fight all their lives reside, those who do not give up, those who restore hope and joy; you will always be in the heart of the people of Mexico.

Sheinbaum’s speech itself was AMLO’s first major tribute. The Senora Presidenta stated that “Mexican humanism,” which she called a “peaceful revolution” and the “fourth transformation of Mexican public life,” will continue in earnest. She went further, noting AMLO’s activism as a means to fire another diplomatic shot at Spain:

He retires from public life as a democrat and Maderista, to continue fighting from another trench, to write about what he has maintained since his first days working with the Chontal Maya: that the origins of the cultural greatness of Mexico lies within the great civilizations that lived in this country centuries before the Spanish invaded. It is not a coincidence, but a harmony of history that yesterday the reform of the political constitution of the United Mexican States was published in the Government Gazette of the Federationgranting full rights to the indigenous and Afro-Mexican peoples of Mexico.

Sheinbaum’s powerful oratorio provided a sweeping, visionary account of Mexican history. From the revolutionaries to the activists of 1968 to Pancho Villa, Sheinbaum deified a litany of progressive national heroes and symbols. Omitted, of course, were the symbols and legacies of men who represented what Sheinbaum might call a less developed Mexico. After all, King Felipe VI was not invited.

Mexico’s first female president continued the ambitious speech with similar deifications of Mexican women. Building on her mandate, she delivered an unequivocally feminist speech, albeit not in the resentment-laden manner associated with American feminism. Her comments contained only one passing condemnation of machismo. The message focused largely on meeting the material needs of Mexican women, a noble goal in a country that still faces a 43 percent poverty rate.

Sheinbaum laid the cornerstone of AMLO’s monument in the policy-oriented portion of her speech. A reflection of AMLO’s 2018 Toma De Protestashe listed her obligations and priorities, from one to a hundred. The beginning of Sheinbaum’s list stated specific commitments to Mexican humanism and emphasized broad, populist economic policies. Given her party’s economic successes, Sheinbaum was able to denounce the pre-AMLO past with authority:

The answer is: it (AMLO’s sixenio) changed the country’s development model, from the failed neoliberal model and the regime of corruption and privilege to one that emerged from Mexico’s fruitful history, love for the people and honesty. We call it Mexican Humanism.

AMLO has indeed changed Mexico’s development model. By embracing LNG and other fossil fuels, AMLO has enabled a post-COVID production boom. After successfully negotiating the USMCA agreement, AMLO masterfully positioned Mexico for the onset of nearshoring. Impressive infrastructure projects across the country are being completed at a rapid pace, including transnational railways and port construction. The country has benefited from record foreign investment in 2024 and has collected an impressive number of relocations. Morena has capitalized on the windfall by funding generous social programs that have contributed to the party’s dizzying popularity. Although Mexico continues to struggle with inflation, the AMLO years have led to a relatively stable peso, especially in the eyes of an electorate accustomed to volatility.

Anecdotally, a conventional bullishness is percolating in Texas. I’ve heard energy retailers from Dallas, pipeline salespeople from Houston, and engineering engineers from Austin all say the same thing: “Beware of Mexico.” I can’t say I share the optimism, but the integration of the Texas Triangle into a broader Latin American market, especially in light of the creation of the TXSE in DFW, is seen as inevitable.

I hate to break the news to my optimistic Texas friends reading this, but Claudia Sheinbaum spent three years at California’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory completing a dissertation in power engineering. Her speech reflected her appreciation for market-oriented investments in renewable energy, but also included a pledge to limit fossil fuel consumption to 1.8 million barrels per day. She gave an assessment that is consistent with a Berkeley education:

We will promote energy efficiency and the transition to renewable energy sources in order to meet the growth in energy demand through these sources. Remember that the energy reform proposed production of three million barrels per day. That is impossible from an environmental point of view; it is better to promote efficiency and renewable sources.

I wrote last week that the United States might find Sheinbaum a less practical actor than her predecessor. Nearshoring, a crucial priority for the United States as the world order teeters, requires Mexican investment in fossil fuel production. The energy production required to grow industrial production cannot be achieved by combining an assortment of renewable energy sources. In Sheinbaum’s words, this task would be “ecologically impossible.” Her environmental proposals, coupled with legal reforms and predominantly left-wing rhetoric, caused a 14 percent drop in the value of the peso in the wake of her election. Her speech might convey moderation to Americans accustomed to vitriolic rhetoric, but doubling down on ill-conceived ideological commitments amid a currency plunge is generally considered political malpractice. Ask Liz Truss.

Sheinbaum’s inflexible environmental views will jeopardize not only further economic integration, but also the sustainability of the social subsidies that have proven to be the basis of Morena’s popularity. Armed with her doctorate, Sheinbaum will use her presidency and popularity to reverse a key part of the AMLO development model she so fervently champions. Limiting fossil fuel extraction is a risky gamble on several fronts.

Nevertheless, Sheinbaum’s speech was impressive. It was visionary in its ambition, far-reaching in scope, and simple in purpose and policy. From the perspective of an American conservative, her comments might smack of socialism or climate alarmism, but those are everyday grievances. Rather, the troubling aspect of Sheinbaum’s speech was what was communicated through omission.

Sheinbaum did not refer to the ongoing crisis at the US-Mexico border or to human trafficking. This is remarkable, given that American politics is completely immersed in the crisis. Sheinbaum would speak briefly about the need to reduce record murders, but only as part of the attack on Felipe Calderón’s mid-2000s war on drugs: “On security, we will reduce crimes by a large guarantee impact. Calderón’s irresponsible war on drugs, which continues to harm Mexico, will not return. Our belief is that security and peace are the fruit of justice.”

In other words, Sheinbaum plans to continue AMLO’s failed “hugs, not bullets” approach to narco-terrorism. Morena’s crime record has been catastrophic for the Mexican people. Murder rates during the AMLO years have been about 30 to 40 percent higher than during the much-demonized war on drugs. Large parts of the country remain under paramilitary control, while human and drug trafficking markets flourish. Unless serious reverses are achieved, Mexico will lose its 500,000th citizen to drug-related killings sometime during Sheinbaum’s term. Soon the death toll will surpass that of Mexico’s cataclysmic War of Independence against Spain. Are Mexican citizens Certainly Felipe VI is the head of state who owes them an apology?

Sheinbaum’s only substantive mention of migration was her reference to the “heroes and heroines” who lived in the United States and sent “aid” back to communities in Mexico. The public praise for the flow of $60 billion from the United States to Mexico was overwhelming. The capital outflows associated with remittances reduce domestic demand and contribute to US wage stagnation. This practice, accomplished primarily through criminally trafficked labor, is inherently contrary to the economic interests of American citizens. Sheinbaum’s open and profuse praise for the practice (in the presence of FLOTUS) lends credence to the disturbing suspicion that the Mexican government is acting (or rather not acting) to allow human traffickers to operate fearlessly. After all, the financial motive is there. When U.S. dollar remittances make up four percent of your country’s gross domestic product, confronting traffickers can become costly. One could also speculate that the Biden administration has used this flow of remittances as a form of backdoor foreign aid.

Claudia Sheinbaum may not be the most important head of state in the eyes of the diplomats of the next US administration. Heads of state in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are competing for the guest of honor invitation to the State Department’s happy hour. But for a U.S. president concerned with resolving major crises of national importance — supply chain security, migration, fentanyl proliferation — cooperation with Mexico will be critical. Sheinbaum’s speech shows that Mexico, like her predecessor, is prepared to adopt a sharp interpretation of their national interests. It would be a mistake to underestimate her political appeal and, by extension, Mexico’s new concept of self-identity. For the next one sexenioClaudia Sheinbaum will be a crucial figure in the story of the United States. She follows a man whose popularity and public admiration defy the bleak global political climate. AMLO has fundamentally reoriented Mexican politics, with consequences that will likely last for decades. Will a great woman follow the great man?