Bills vs Jets Early Leans & Picks – Monday Night Football Week 6

The Buffalo Bills can put a stranglehold on the AFC East when they visit the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

Buffalo is 3-2 straight in this primetime matchup, while the Jets and the rest of the division sit below .500 through Week 6. New York also shuffles along the sidelines, firing head coach Robert Saleh on Tuesday morning. Oddsmakers believe in Bills Mafia, making Buffalo a three-point road favorite.

I take a look at the spread and over/under totals for Monday Night Football and give my initial guesses, Bills vs. Jets predictions and NFL picks for Monday, October 14.

Bills vs. Jets predictions

Early spread thin
New York Jets +3 (-120 at FanDuel)

My analysis

It was a long flight home for the New York Jets after last Sunday’s loss in London against Minnesota. Most teams get a customary bye after international appearances, but not in New York. Gang Green will get an extra day to rest and regroup after Saleh’s firing, and veteran QB Aaron Rodgers will need it.

Rodgers felt the pain before Week 5, but left London with a loss and a high ankle sprain. Although listed as questionable for Week 6, Rodgers’ ankle injury is not too serious and he is expected to play on Monday.

The Buffalo Bills are also coming off a Week 5 loss and QB Josh Allen is also worse for wear with his own ankle sprain and a rough outing against Houston. This trip to the Meadowlands will be the Bills’ third straight game after losses to the Ravens and Texans.

Buffalo has bullied some bad defensive teams to start the season, but the offense has had more trouble against quality stop units in Baltimore and Houston – scoring just 30 points and ranking 25th in EPA per game over the past two weeks.

New York remains one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. Since allowing San Francisco 32 points in Week 1, the Jets have given up just 53 total points and rank No. 2 in EPA allowed per game over the past four weeks.

With this spread climbing to Bills -3 in some books, I’m hesitant to lay the field goal with a team that looks slightly better than it is due to weaker foes to start the season.

Early over/under lean
Under 41.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Bills’ biggest weakness is stopping the run. We saw that on full display in the Week 4 loss to the run-heavy Ravens. New York has a nice two-headed monster in Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen, but hands the ball off at the third-lowest rate while leaving the rushing attack to sit at 28th in EPA per carry.

Buffalo defends the pass well but doesn’t get after opposing quarterbacks, with the lowest blitz rate in the league and a pressure rate of just 16.3%. The Bills play a lot of zone coverage and deep ball protection (giving up just eight passes of 20 or more yards), which will leave Rodgers surgically short-handed.

As for Buffalo’s offense, it has struggled against quality defensive opponents over the past two games. The Bills are no longer a playbook deep offense, instead relying on bigger WRs to catch and execute shorter completions.

Buffalo ranks second in average yards after the catch (7.1), while the Jets allow the least YAC in the league with tight man coverage and good tackling. New York also does a good job of pressuring the passer, with 18 sacks and a pressure rate of just under 30% (fifth highest).

The Bills are playing a methodical pace on offense, hitting the second-fewest plays per game and a small 5.4% no-huddle percentage on the season. The Jets have seen their pace of play increase as a result of falling behind in the second half, but they also don’t engage in no-huddle as much.

This total is 41.5 O/U and with two solid defenses and two pedestrian fouls, I’m leaning toward the Under on Monday night.

Bills vs Jets live odds

Pages related to this topic