Trump’s Latin American Policy: A Topic That Could Decide The Election – OpEd

On September 10, the first and only televised presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris took place. While the debate covered numerous topics, one of the most prominent and possibly the most sensitive was the U.S. relationship with Latin America, particularly migration from that region to the United States.

The only two countries explicitly mentioned in the debate were Mexico and Venezuela, but all the other challenges related to the topic were addressed, such as illegal immigration, protecting the U.S.-Mexico border, drug trafficking, the U.S. trade deficit with the region, and the need for new tariffs. The approach to these issues will largely determine the outcome of the presidential election. Latin America has never been more important to the U.S., which is not surprising considering there are about 65 million Latin Americans living in the U.S. (19 percent of the total population).

Trump’s Latin American Policy 2017-2021

What a second Trump administration might look like can largely be understood by examining the results of the first Trump administration from 2017 to 2021. It is hard to expect Trump and his associates to make a 180-degree turn, with only minor changes likely.

One of the most controversial aspects of Trump’s policy toward Latin America was his stance on migration. During his tenure, Trump harshly criticized both illegal and legal immigration from Latin American countries, particularly Mexico and Central America. His rhetoric included claims that immigrants were responsible for crime and illegal activities in the U.S. (e.g., narcotics and rape), which caused significant tensions within the U.S. Trump’s administration implemented a “zero-tolerance” policy toward illegal immigration, resulting in the separation of children from their parents at the border. This move drew international criticism and divided the U.S. public. Around half a million illegal immigrants were deported annually. Additionally, Trump renewed and built part of the wall, or border barrier, on the U.S.-Mexico border, which symbolized the protection of U.S. borders.

In terms of trade, Trump favored bilateral agreements that were highly favorable to the U.S., in line with the proclaimed “America First” policy. One of the key trade moves was the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. Trump often criticized NAFTA as harmful to American workers and negotiated a new agreement, the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), which came into effect in 2020. The new agreement aimed to increase American industrial production and ensure greater protection for American jobs. Mexico was the U.S. partner in implementing policies aimed at halting the flow of migrants into the U.S. After Trump’s threat to impose tariffs, the Mexican government agreed to send the military to its southern border to prevent the influx of Central American migrants.

Trade and political relations with countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela were subject to fluctuations, depending on political and economic changes in the region. In principle, Trump’s establishment supported right-wing governments while clashing with left-wing ones. Trump’s administration supported Brazil’s right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, with whom they shared similar ideological views on economic and security issues. Trump attended the 2018 G20 summit in Buenos Aires, organized by right-wing President Mauricio Macri. Trump’s government in 2019 recognized self-proclaimed Venezuelan President Juan Guaidó, who ultimately failed to seize power and overthrow Nicolás Maduro. Trump also imposed numerous sanctions against Venezuelan officials and the economy in an attempt to pressure Maduro’s regime.

New sanctions were introduced against Cuba, reversing part of the Obama administration’s decisions to ease sanctions on Cuba. These sanctions primarily targeted Cuban tourism and trade, aiming to weaken the communist regime and strengthen human rights. Relations with Nicaragua were also tense. Relations with Colombia improved after conservative Ivan Duque came to power in 2018.

In summary, Trump’s unilateral approach often created tensions with multilateral institutions but increased U.S. influence in the region. Former Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, Mark Esper (2019-2020), revealed in his book “A Sacred Oath” that the president supported launching missiles on Mexico to destroy drug production infrastructure, military action in Venezuela, and a blockade of Cuba. These were actions he refrained from due to his advisors, but the question remains whether they will be able to dissuade him from similar decisions in a second term.

Commitment to the Monroe Doctrine

In short, Trump’s policy toward Latin America could most accurately be defined as a combination of realpolitik (focused on protecting U.S. interests) and ideologically motivated foreign policy (support for pro-business right-wing governments). It is a commitment to the political concept of the Monroe Doctrine. The doctrine has been a key component of U.S. foreign policy since 1823, when it was proclaimed by then-President James Monroe. The basic idea of the Monroe Doctrine is the definition of the Western Hemisphere as the U.S. sphere of influence and a warning to European powers not to interfere in the affairs of American states. Although the Monroe Doctrine was initially more symbolic than practical, it eventually became the foundation of U.S. policy toward Latin America and was later expanded by the Roosevelt Corollary.

The Monroe Doctrine has been supported to varying degrees by all U.S. administrations to this day, although some have denied it (e.g., Barack Obama and associates like John Kerry). The only difference between different U.S. administrations in their approach to Latin America has been the resources they invested in it (time, money, energy).

In the first 15 years of the 21st century, the U.S. turned its attention to the Middle East and Asia, where it saw new threats—Islamic fundamentalism, China, Russia, Iran—while neglecting its backyard. This mistake facilitated the triumph of leftist governments on the continent—the so-called Pink Tide. Trump decided to change that. He and his associates (John Bolton, Rex Tillerson) had no problem publicly invoking the ancient doctrine. Prominent Republicans are now doing the same. In October last year, some Republican senators proposed a resolution on the Monroe Doctrine, and in December, a similar resolution was introduced in the House of Representatives. Notable Republican officials (Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, Senators John Kennedy, Lindsey Graham, former presidential candidate Nikki Haley, and others) have repeatedly emphasized the need for U.S. Armed Forces intervention in Mexico to fight drug cartels. This is essentially a euphemism for an invasion of Mexico.

Anti-Immigration Policy

During the presidential debate, Trump was vocal about his anti-immigration policy. This is expected, as opposition to illegal immigration is the number one topic in his campaign. It is anticipated that if Trump returns to the White House, he will initiate a large-scale crackdown aimed at identifying and deporting illegal immigrants. In the debate, he emphasized that he would pressure El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to pass laws requiring illegal immigrants to seek asylum in their respective countries rather than in the U.S. He promised to revoke Temporary Protected Status for migrants from these three countries, plus Haiti and Nicaragua, which currently guarantees them residency and work permits in the U.S. He also promised to reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” policy, under which illegal immigrants would wait in Mexico for their asylum applications to be processed, rather than in the U.S. as is currently the case. Additionally, he promised to rebuild the “wall” on the U.S.-Mexico border to prevent the mass entry of immigrants.

Turning to Protectionism

If Trump wins the presidency, it is undeniable that he will steer the American economy toward protectionism, which will result in uncertainty in global trade. Mexico and Canada are likely to be the most affected by such Trump policies, given that they are signatories to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The agreement went into effect in 2020 during Trump’s administration.

Although Trump is the main architect of the deal, it is expected that he will seek its revision in 2026 when it is scheduled for review. In this year’s campaign, he promised to impose a 10% tariff on all imported products coming into America. Countries that rely on remittances from abroad will be most affected by Trump’s anti-immigration and protectionist policies. Many of these countries are in Latin America. In Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, remittances from the U.S. make up about 20% of the national GDP. In Mexico and the Dominican Republic, remittances from the U.S. also have some significance for the poor segments of the population.

Rivalry with China

In August last year, Trump stated that America should never have handed over control of the Panama Canal to Panama, asserting that China actually controls this vital maritime passage. Trump’s unquestionable anti-China stance will intertwine with his policy toward Latin America. There is no doubt that Trump views leftist governments in the region as closely linked to China (and potentially Russia), which he sees as a threat to U.S. national interests. Trump sees cooperation between China and the region as a security issue, as well as a technological, trade, investment, and political challenge for the U.S. In places in the region where the Chinese invest or trade, Americans either cannot operate or do so with reduced capacity, something Trump, as a businessman, understands perfectly. Additionally, the entry of Chinese tech giants into the Latin American market (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi) similarly prevents American corporations from competing effectively.

To thwart Chinese influence while strengthening American influence, it’s logical to assume that Trump will embrace a “carrot and stick” policy. He will use pressure and sanctions to break cooperation with China while offering American trade and investment alternatives in return. However, the problem is that Americans cannot compete with the Chinese in many areas, especially in infrastructure and industrial sector investments. In addition to Chinese influence, Trump will attempt to curb Iranian influence, which has grown significantly in recent years. Iran is a strong partner of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, and this year also became a BRICS member, which has enhanced its cooperation with Brazil. The Iran-Latin America partnership is undoubtedly a thorn in Trump’s side, as well as that of most of the American political elite, regardless of their party affiliation.

Potential New Invasions

As the regime of “tropical Stalin” Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela becomes increasingly brutal and as Cuba under the leadership of Miguel Díaz-Canel sinks deeper into poverty, pressures on Trump to initiate invasions or covert intelligence operations to overthrow the socialist regimes will grow stronger. Although Trump has not commented on Maduro’s disputed election victory in late July, in August, he called him a dictator. At the same time, Trump attacked El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, accusing him of sending criminals from his country to America. It is certain that the U.S. under Trump will increase its military and naval presence in the region, and CIA, DEA, and other government operations will intensify to suppress drug smuggling and other organized criminal activities.

The Opinion of Latin Americans

The key question is: What is the stance of Americans of Latin and Hispanic descent towards Donald Trump? Due to their numbers and influence, they could be the deciding factor in the election. After the debate, the largest and oldest Latino civil rights organization in the U.S., the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), condemned Trump’s “xenophobic and inflammatory remarks” and endorsed Kamala Harris.

“His rhetoric on immigration not only misrepresents the facts but also promotes fear and division, unfairly targeting immigrant communities, particularly Latinos,” the organization stated in a press release. They supported Harris because of her commitment to a “fairer and more humanitarian” immigration system. This was the first time LULAC had ever endorsed a presidential candidate since its founding in 1929. However, a large poll conducted by NPR, PBS News, and Marist Poll ahead of the debate revealed that 51% of Latinos support Trump, while 47% support Harris. This is a significant change compared to August when Harris led by 15%. It seems Harris is faring worse among this voter group than Joe Biden, while Trump remains appealing due to his traditionalism. Because of the Electoral College, Latino votes in swing states like Arizona, where Latinos make up 25% of the electorate, and Florida, where they account for about 20%, will be crucial. These votes could ultimately be decisive.