Ecuador’s Burning Issues: Forest Fires and Violence Fuel State of Emergency

On October 3, President Daniel Noboa declared a new 60-day state of emergency in Ecuador, affecting six provinces and two cantons, including the national capital Quito.

The declaration followed a series of forest fires that hit several regions of the country in September, most notably the capital, which was besieged by numerous fires for three days. These events required the mobilization of firefighters, police and military personnel to control the flames and forced Noboa to abandon his participation in the United Nations General Assembly and return to Ecuador.

The state of emergency decree noted that criminal groups in Ecuador “operate with an alarming level of organization and lethality.”

In recent years, Ecuador has been gripped by an unprecedented wave of violence and insecurity. For example, Durán, located in the province of Guayas, became the most dangerous city in the world last year, with 145.43 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants – more than the Mexican cities of Colima and Ciudad Obregón.

In January, following a wave of serious violence that engulfed several Ecuadorian cities, the president declared the existence of an internal armed conflict and identified 22 criminal groups “as terrorist organizations and non-state belligerent actors,” many of which have ties with Mexican drug cartels.

BNamericas speaks with Mario Pazmiño, former head of Ecuador’s military intelligence and now international security and defense advisor, about the country’s security situation and what to expect ahead of the general elections in four months.

BNamericas: Can the fires that destroyed Quito be blamed on arsonists?

Pazmino: I think there is a misconception when we talk about arsonists, essentially people with a psychological problem related to fire. What we have seen here are fire starters – people committing acts of urban terrorism, which, in my view, aims to sow division and create chaos nationwide.

The fires initially started in Quito, then spread to Guayaquil and also affected other major cities in the country. It appears to be a structure that has gradually escalated – a kind of planning designed to cause unrest, paralyze the government and prevent it from responding effectively. This creates an image of government inefficiency, especially given the upcoming election process. I think all possible mechanisms are being used to undermine the president’s image in any way possible.

BNamericas: So is the intention to influence Noboa’s presidential candidacy?

Pazmino: Precisely. The goal is to make society believe that the government is unable to maintain security and order for the entire population. We must remember the audio leaked in Bolivia in 2023 about forest fires intended to create chaos for the Bolivian government

Editor’s note: During the chaos caused by the fires, a controversial audio leaked on social media reportedly featured former President Evo Morales’ voice encouraging more fires to be set.

This type of strategy is used to weaken governments and portray them as inexperienced and inefficient.

BNamericas: Could these events be linked to drug trafficking and organized crime groups, who may be looking for a candidate who would pose fewer problems for them?

Pazmino: Organized crime works differently. What organized crime will do is try to infiltrate political structures to gain direct access to a candidate or officials, with the aim of later asking for favors in return for the initial support they provided.

On the other hand, the current insecurity crisis and the increase in these deliberate fires have also alleviated some of the pressure on organized crime, as a significant portion of law enforcement resources had to be deployed to control these incidents. As a result, law enforcement has lost some momentum in its anti-crime activities, which directly benefits organized crime groups.

BNamericas: What message were the criminals trying to send in Samanes, Guayaquil, where vehicles were set on fire in broad daylight?

Pazmino: In the case of Samanes, the message is very clear: they can perform anywhere. There are vulnerable areas nationwide that can be quickly affected, causing chaos and insecurity for the population.

For example, in Quito there are protected areas such as the Pululahua Geobotanical Reserve, which would impact the northern part of the city; the Guanguiltagua Metropolitan Park, which would cause chaos in the central-northern part of the city; the Pichincha protected park, which would cause serious problems in the north; and the Ilaló slopes and areas near the southern Metropolitan park. The slopes of Atacazo are also areas where these types of actions can cause serious problems in urban areas.

There are also rural areas such as the Tumbaco and Cumbaya Valleys, where significant fires could split the city in two. These may be some of the strategies used to create chaos and insecurity for the population.

BNamericas: Were the fires in Guápulo intended to block access to the northern part of Quito?

Pazmino: Those fires started in Guápulo and gained strength around the Guanguiltagua Metropolitan park area. What they tried to do was divide the city, cutting communications between the central-northern part and the valleys, causing a serious mobility and security problem, especially for residents in the affected areas.

BNamericas: If these fires cannot be attributed to organized crime, who is responsible?

Pazmino: Multiple actors may be involved; we cannot rule out that criminal gangs have an interest in it, nor can we rule out the possibility that political groups want to create chaos to delegitimize government actions. Ultimately, there are several groups interested in creating nationwide chaos, especially in Quito.

BNamericas: Although the most serious fires occurred in Quito, there were also fires in other cities. Could they all be part of a destabilization plan?

Pazmino: It is highly suspicious that multiple fires occurred in one day, especially in one city. That doesn’t make much sense, especially when we consider that there have been similar fires in other parts of the country, with almost identical characteristics.

Therefore, I consider this an act of urban terrorism. The government should pay more attention, especially in critical areas, such as where there are large numbers of vehicles, whether they are municipal vehicles or vehicles seized by local authorities. Fires or other incidents can easily occur in these areas, causing chaos.

It is crucial to keep a close eye on the vulnerable areas I mentioned.

BNamericas: Will we see more violence as the election campaign approaches?

Pazmino: I think the country will witness an escalation of violence between now and December, and from there until the elections in February. Organized crime is interested in causing chaos, acts of terror and social unrest, all of which directly benefits certain political structures and these criminal organizations.

As we get closer to the election date, we will see more violence and conflict in the country.

BNamericas: Could we see a candidate get assassinated, as happened last year?

Pazmino: Former presidential candidate José Serrano said he had credible information about a possible attack on him, prompting him to withdraw his candidacy.

Candidates are not exempt from the possibility of attack; In fact, they are a prime target for criminal organizations. There is no denying that organized crime has an interest in controlling Ecuador’s political landscape, and they actively seek to penetrate political structures.

BNamericas: Are Mexican cartels still active in Ecuador, both from prisons and on the streets?

Pazmino: Mexican cartels still operate through several local gangs, which act as middlemen and carry out much of their work. The Mexican cartels and international mafia prefer not to attract too much attention. They operate under the motto: ‘The quieter the hornet’s nest, the better’, because that means the drugs flow without interruption. However, when disputes arise between cartels or gangs, things become complicated as they are forced to implement a stricter form of criminal governance. This complicates the situation for both national and international criminal organizations.

BNamericas: Although rarely talked about, illegal mining is growing in Ecuador. Will the drug trade continue to tighten its grip through illegal mining activities?

Pazmino: Criminal organizations have two main financial pillars: the predominant one is drug trafficking, but illegal mining is growing rapidly and sometimes even exceeds it. These two activities are directly linked to organized crime.

Recent incidents along the border, in the Amazon provinces of Orellana and Sucumbíos, where clashes and killings of national police took place, were mainly caused by the activities of criminal organizations operating in the area. The same is happening in Ponce Enríquez in the province of Azuay, and Buenos Aires in the province of Imbabura. In these areas, criminal rule is growing stronger every day and criminal sanctuaries – areas controlled by gangs – are expanding.

A month and a half ago, members of a Colombian group were captured in Sucumbíos, demonstrating that the criminal spectrum is expanding to include several organizations all looking for sources of financing, including illegal mining.

BNamericas: What is the current situation with drug trafficking and drug exports from Ecuador?

Pazmino: There is an overproduction of cocaine in Colombia, meaning that approximately 800-850 tons of cocaine enter Ecuador through the northern border each year. I estimate that about 90-96 tons come through the southern border. This makes Ecuador an important export platform for cocaine from the Pacific Basin.

This security dysfunction and clashes in the country led the president to declare the existence of an internal armed conflict in January.

BNamericas: Has this statement produced tangible results?

Pazmino: In some ways, the government has tried to reduce the operational capacity of criminal organizations, but this is extremely difficult. The President currently lacks the time, financial resources, and technology to effectively limit the actions of these organizations.

Countries such as Russia, China, Japan, the United States, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, among others, have been fighting organized crime for decades and have not succeeded. What they are doing is implementing measures to contain the disease, but eradicating it is impossible.

BNamericas: Why has Durán become one of the most dangerous cities in the world? Why is it so attractive to organized crime?

Pazmino: Durán is a strategic point where drugs can flow through the estuary and lead directly to the port of Guayaquil, considered Ecuador’s main cocaine export platform. Therefore, Durán is a strategic location that every criminal organization wants to control.