BJP sees divided results in elections in Haryana and Kashmir

Welcome to Foreign policy‘South Asia Letter.

The highlights this week: India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party gets mixed results in state elections, political protests and a terrorist attack strike this weekend Pakistan and the Maldivian president Mohammed Muizzu takes a five-day trip to India.

India on Tuesday announced the results of the parliamentary elections in the state of Haryana and the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The votes were the first test for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since national elections concluded in June – when it failed to win an outright majority, leaving Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to rule in coalition for the first time .

The BJP won the elections in Haryana but lost to a group of rivals in Kashmir. Despite the divided outcome, both votes could be seen as a victory for the BJP: one gave the party a clear political boost, while the other gave it a more strategic triumph.

In Haryana, the BJP became the first party to win a third consecutive term in the state assembly – defying the anti-incumbency factor. Indian analysts say this is partly because many state leaders are relatively new faces, including Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, who has only been in office for six months.

The triumph comes in a state that has been the scene of high-profile anti-BJP activism – from farmers opposing Modi’s agricultural policies to protesters demanding the resignation of BJP lawmaker Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, who was accused of sexual harassment when he headed the government. Wrestling Federation of India. The opposition Indian National Congress party did well in Haryana in the national elections.

Exit polls, which are often wrong in India, predicted a BJP loss in Haryana. But the party had worked hard to win. The top national leadership played a direct role in the strategy: Home Minister Amit Shah visited the state ahead of the elections to oversee planning, and he and BJP president JP Nadda signed the party’s candidates in the state off.

The BJP campaigned heavily in rural areas, where the Congress threat was strongest. In a possible sign of the lessons learned from this year’s electoral setback, Modi took part in fewer campaign rallies in Haryana than before. The BJP also created a narrative around boosting jobs and incomes – and did not rally around the communal issues that were likely to hurt the party in the national elections.

In contrast, the BJP suffered a blow in Jammu and Kashmir, winning only 29 seats compared to the 42 won by the National Conference Party, which will form a government in coalition with the Congress.

The vote was the first in almost a decade in Kashmir and was widely seen as a referendum on New Delhi’s decision in 2019 to strip the region of its autonomy – a move strongly opposed by many people in Kashmir, especially in the Muslim-majority country. Kashmir Valley. Most of the seats won by the National Conference, which rejected the move, were in the Kashmir Valley.

Yet the BJP can still claim a strategic victory in Kashmir. It has repeatedly emphasized that the abrogation of Article 370 would ultimately bring greater stability to the troubled region. The idea of ​​a normalized Kashmir has become a rallying cry for the BJP, with the government organizing tourism summits in the region and recently bringing foreign diplomats to Srinagar, its largest city. Now Modi’s party can point to a successful election process.

In reality, Kashmir remains highly volatile. The country has recently suffered several terrorist attacks, and authorities still maintain a strong presence in the Kashmir Valley, restricting freedoms and making many residents unwilling to speak out. Nevertheless, the election and its outcome provide the BJP with compelling data points to brandish in response to such criticism.

The BJP will now set its sights on the state assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, both scheduled for later this year. Like in Haryana, the BJP faced setbacks in the national elections in both states. But the party heads into the election with new momentum and confidence as it tries to undo the political damage it suffered earlier this year.

Pakistan’s weekend of violence. On Saturday, supporters of jailed Pakistani opposition leader Imran Khan heeded his call to protest in Punjab province – defying demonstration bans and repression including road closures and tear gas. Dozens of police officers were injured in clashes with protesters.

Khan called on his supporters to oppose proposed constitutional changes that would give Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership more influence over the courts, but many demonstrators mainly demonstrated for Khan’s release.

Then, late Sunday local time, the Balochistan Liberation Army, a violent separatist group, bombed a Chinese convoy outside Karachi’s international airport, killing two Chinese nationals. The terrorist attack was the latest in a series in recent years against Chinese targets in Pakistan. Beijing’s security concerns there have become a major point of tension in its otherwise close alliance with Islamabad.

Taken together, the political protests and the terrorist attack pose a worrying challenge for Pakistan, which is hosting a high-level summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on October 15 and 16. Pakistani officials, sensitive to global criticism that the country is not safe for foreigners, are determined to ensure the summit succeeds.

Security measures in Islamabad are likely to be high next week ahead of the arrival of top officials from China, Russia and India – the latter of which will be represented by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

Muizzu visits New Delhi. Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu arrived in India on Sunday for a five-day visit. It is a significant trip for a leader who campaigned on a promise to expel the Indian military presence from the Maldives and has moved quickly to strengthen defense ties with China. However, the visit is yet another reminder that Muizzu will not give up his country’s long association with India, contrary to what some claim.

Muizzu wants to better balance ties with both China and India, which could mean strengthening defense ties with Beijing but also doubling down on the economic partnership with New Delhi. Since taking office last year, Muizzu has continued to refer to India as a close partner – a recognition of the Maldives’ dependence on India for economic support.

Muizzu, who attended Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in June, has often acknowledged India’s importance as a source of financial and development support – a crucial role in the Maldives, which is still struggling to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic for tourism. sector. And New Delhi, always keen to counter Beijing’s influence, has happily complied.

After a meeting with Muizzu on Monday, Modi announced that India has approved a new currency exchange with Male. This comes after India agreed in April to expand food exports to the Maldives. The two leaders also said their governments will soon start talks on a possible free trade deal.

Bangladesh marks the Hindu festival. This week, Hindus in Bangladesh celebrate Durga Puja, a festival in honor of the goddess Durga. While it usually brings major festivities, some leaders of Bangladesh’s Hindu community have said this may be limited this year due to concerns about security risks since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country in August.

That month, according to Bangladeshi reports, there were hundreds of attacks on Hindu targets: retaliatory violence against those seen as supporters of Hasina and her party. The safety of Bengali Hindus is a major concern for India: last week, an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said he expected Dhaka to provide security to religious minorities during Durga Puja.

Bangladesh’s interim government insists it is taking steps to protect religious minorities. Shortly after taking office, Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus met with Hindu community leaders. Yet Durga Puja will be a test case for Dhaka’s ability to ensure this security. Hasina’s ouster created more political space for Islamist hardliners, whom her government tried to curb.

If the holiday period is relatively quiet, the interim government will be able to say that its efforts to guarantee security have been successful. But if violent incidents occur, concerns within affected communities will grow – and pressure on Dhaka to do more will increase.

Nepal has been hit again by deadly floods in recent days, leaving rescue workers with a familiar challenge: how to deliver immediate aid to the most remote and inaccessible affected areas in the mountainous country.

This time, however, the care providers are using a new approach. The Kathmandu Post reports that aid workers have dispatched drones to deliver food, water and other essential supplies. The drones are owned by an NGO called Hami Nepal, which says they are imported from China and are operated with help from a Nepali technology company.

On Sunday alone, the drones transported approximately 600 kilograms of relief materials and made a total of 30 flights. Sudan Gurung, the head of Hami Nepal, said this is the first time the drones have been used for this specific purpose in the country. But according to the World Bank, drones have been part of some disaster rescue efforts there for years.

Following severe flooding in 2021, Nepal’s top national disaster authority – in partnership with the World Bank – used drones to collect data, including information on the most heavily flooded areas. The bank highlights the obstacles to the wider use of drones in Nepal, from permit delays to strict import regulations. But this should not take away from last weekend’s successes.

In the Daily mirrordoctor Himantha Atukorale is concerned that older Sri Lankans are being exploited during election campaigns. “Election monitoring bodies, alongside civil society, must play an active role in protecting the rights of older voters,” he wrote. “This could include stricter oversight, better education about their voting rights and the creation of special support groups.”

In Pakistan todaywriter Tanzeel Khanzada argues that Islamabad must implement rigorous privatization reforms. “The sad reality is that every major state institution in Pakistan has become a symbol of corruption, inefficiency and public exploitation,” he writes. These “institutions drain the country’s resources while giving little in return.”

In the Printscholars Sunil Badve And Shechar Mande discuss how India is working to boost cancer treatment. “Much of Indian cancer care is based on data from Western countries, which has led to an increasing realization among healthcare providers that generating India-specific data is essential so that Indian patients can be better treated based on their genomic information” , they write.