25 Days Out – Voters’ priorities are sharpening as the nation faces a defining moment

• Forty-three percent prioritize the economy as the country’s most important issue
• Immigration/border security and gun violence are the other top concerns
• Abortion rose in importance to third place
• Almost two-thirds are dissatisfied with the country’s direction

What are Americans’ priorities, just 25 days before the November elections?

Forty-three percent identified the economy as the country’s most important issue, followed by immigration and border security at 36 percent. Abortion and gun violence/gun control are also major concerns for 19 percent and 17 percent of respondents, respectively.

Abortion has grown in importance in the run-up to the elections, rising to third place, up from tenth and rated as an important issue by only 12% in January.

These results are of the latter TIPP surveywhich surveyed 1,488 Americans and concluded in early October. The poll asked participants: “What are the three most important problems facing the country?”

Twelve other issues received double-digit responses: gun violence/gun control (17%), health care (17%), crime (17%), national debt/federal government spending (15%), housing affordability (15%), homelessness (14% ), climate change (13%), trust in government/politicians (12%), threats to democracy (12%), terrorism/national security (11%), lack of unity/division in the country (10%) %) , and the 2024 elections (10%).

Meanwhile, mental health (9%), the Russia-Ukraine war and global security (6%), the Israel-Hamas conflict (6%), racial justice (5%), China-US relations (3%) and the coronavirus (2%) is in the bottom tier, each with less than ten percent.

Priorities varied along party and ideological lines.

For Democrats, the top issues are the economy (35%), abortion (29%), gun violence/gun control (23%), health care (21%) and climate change (21%).

In contrast, Republicans prioritized immigration and border security (60%), the economy (51%), national debt/spending (23%), and crime (18%).

Independents aligned more closely with Republicans, with the top issues being the economy (43%), immigration/border security (31%), gun violence/gun control (20%), homelessness (18%), and housing affordability (18%). . ).

Key economic issues

From a list of 21 economy-related issues, respondents chose their top three concerns.

Food prices (48%), inflation (48%), people’s ability to pay their bills (26%), and housing affordability (23%) are among the top three economic problems facing Americans.

Government spending (20%), gasoline prices (19%), tax rates (16%), recession (15%) and lack of good jobs (11%) received double-digit answers.

Direction of the country

Every month the TIPP survey examines the general sentiment regarding the country’s direction and asks: “Overall, how satisfied are you with the direction the country is taking right now?”

Nearly two-thirds (61%) are dissatisfied with the country’s direction. 32% said yes not satisfied at all, and 29% are not very satisfied. Most Republicans (82%) and independents (67%) expressed dissatisfaction. More than half (61%) of Democrats are satisfied and 37% are dissatisfied.

We also calculate a compact index based on the answers to the question. The index ranges from 0 to 100. A score of 50 or higher is positive, lower than 50 is negative and 50 is neutral.

Overall, the index entered the negative zone in September 2021 and remained there for 36 months. The October value is 38.7.

Democrats have the most optimistic score at 60.2, while Republicans have the lowest score (22.1), indicating extreme pessimism. The independents are in the middle bracket with 33.5 and remain pessimistic.

Democrats fell 17.1 points, from a high of 77.3 in April 2021 to 60.2 this month – a drop of 22%. Their median during Biden’s presidency is 60.3.

Republicans’ decline began after the December 2020 election, and they have been posting pessimistic numbers (below 50) for 47 months in a row, with a median of 21.1 during Biden’s presidency.

Independents’ average rating during Biden’s presidency is 31.2.

The table below shows the TIPP Direction of Country Index values ​​for the past five election cycles in October of the election year, the month prior to the presidential election. While a weak Direction of Country Index is not advantageous to the incumbent, it does not guarantee victory for the challenger. For example, Barack Obama won re-election in October 2012, despite a weak Direction of Country Index.

High food prices and virtually stagnant incomes have forced households to tighten their budgets. Uncontrolled immigration and rising crime rates are only making matters worse. The pervasive disillusionment does not bode well for incumbent Democrats in 2024.

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